Over the last 20 trading sessions, the big US bank stocks we track returned -6.1%. The market fell far less. Earnings mostly beat expectations; the shares slid anyway. Wells Fargo held up best, Bank of America worst.
Good results, falling shares: the group lagged the market
Three of the biggest US banks reported their Q3 2026 results on Oct. 13. Several of them beat what analysts had been looking for. Their shares slid anyway.
Data table
| date | series | value | series_role |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Industry basket | 0.0% | target |
| 2026-08-11 | Industry basket | 0.3% | target |
| 2026-08-12 | Industry basket | 1.6% | target |
| 2026-08-13 | Industry basket | 1.1% | target |
| 2026-08-14 | Industry basket | 1.6% | target |
| 2026-08-17 | Industry basket | 0.7% | target |
| 2026-08-18 | Industry basket | 0.8% | target |
| 2026-08-19 | Industry basket | -1.3% | target |
| 2026-08-20 | Industry basket | -3.5% | target |
| 2026-08-21 | Industry basket | -3.1% | target |
| 2026-08-24 | Industry basket | -2.3% | target |
| 2026-08-25 | Industry basket | -1.9% | target |
| 2026-08-26 | Industry basket | -1.8% | target |
| 2026-08-27 | Industry basket | -2.6% | target |
| 2026-08-28 | Industry basket | -1.4% | target |
| 2026-08-31 | Industry basket | -2.0% | target |
| 2026-09-01 | Industry basket | -1.7% | target |
| 2026-09-02 | Industry basket | -0.4% | target |
| 2026-09-03 | Industry basket | 0.9% | target |
| 2026-09-04 | Industry basket | 0.7% | target |
| 2026-09-08 | Industry basket | -0.5% | target |
| 2026-09-09 | Industry basket | 0.4% | target |
| 2026-09-10 | Industry basket | 0.3% | target |
| 2026-09-11 | Industry basket | 0.9% | target |
| 2026-09-14 | Industry basket | -1.8% | target |
| 2026-09-15 | Industry basket | -1.3% | target |
| 2026-09-16 | Industry basket | -3.5% | target |
| 2026-09-17 | Industry basket | -3.5% | target |
| 2026-09-18 | Industry basket | -4.0% | target |
| 2026-09-21 | Industry basket | -3.0% | target |
| 2026-09-22 | Industry basket | -6.0% | target |
| 2026-09-23 | Industry basket | -6.7% | target |
| 2026-09-24 | Industry basket | -6.5% | target |
| 2026-09-25 | Industry basket | -5.3% | target |
| 2026-09-28 | Industry basket | -7.4% | target |
| 2026-09-29 | Industry basket | -7.9% | target |
| 2026-09-30 | Industry basket | -8.8% | target |
| 2026-10-01 | Industry basket | -9.3% | target |
| 2026-10-02 | Industry basket | -9.0% | target |
| 2026-10-05 | Industry basket | -8.6% | target |
| 2026-10-06 | Industry basket | -8.5% | target |
| 2026-10-07 | Industry basket | -9.5% | target |
| 2026-10-08 | Industry basket | -8.7% | target |
| 2026-10-09 | Industry basket | -7.5% | target |
| 2026-10-12 | Industry basket | -7.0% | target |
| 2026-10-13 | Industry basket | -9.5% | target |
| 2026-10-14 | Industry basket | -10.7% | target |
| 2026-10-15 | Industry basket | -9.8% | target |
| 2026-10-16 | Industry basket | -9.2% | target |
| 2026-10-19 | Industry basket | -11.0% | target |
| 2026-10-20 | Industry basket | -10.5% | target |
| 2026-10-21 | Industry basket | -10.2% | target |
| 2026-10-22 | Industry basket | -10.0% | target |
| 2026-10-23 | Industry basket | -11.1% | target |
| 2026-08-10 | Market benchmark | 0.0% | benchmark |
| 2026-08-11 | Market benchmark | -0.3% | benchmark |
| 2026-08-12 | Market benchmark | -0.1% | benchmark |
| 2026-08-13 | Market benchmark | 0.6% | benchmark |
| 2026-08-14 | Market benchmark | 0.4% | benchmark |
| 2026-08-17 | Market benchmark | -0.0% | benchmark |
| 2026-08-18 | Market benchmark | -0.7% | benchmark |
| 2026-08-19 | Market benchmark | -0.5% | benchmark |
| 2026-08-20 | Market benchmark | -1.3% | benchmark |
| 2026-08-21 | Market benchmark | -0.9% | benchmark |
| 2026-08-24 | Market benchmark | -1.2% | benchmark |
| 2026-08-25 | Market benchmark | -0.9% | benchmark |
| 2026-08-26 | Market benchmark | -0.9% | benchmark |
| 2026-08-27 | Market benchmark | -0.3% | benchmark |
| 2026-08-28 | Market benchmark | -0.5% | benchmark |
| 2026-08-31 | Market benchmark | -0.8% | benchmark |
| 2026-09-01 | Market benchmark | -1.5% | benchmark |
| 2026-09-02 | Market benchmark | -1.0% | benchmark |
| 2026-09-03 | Market benchmark | 0.0% | benchmark |
| 2026-09-04 | Market benchmark | -0.4% | benchmark |
| 2026-09-08 | Market benchmark | -0.9% | benchmark |
| 2026-09-09 | Market benchmark | -1.4% | benchmark |
| 2026-09-10 | Market benchmark | -2.0% | benchmark |
| 2026-09-11 | Market benchmark | -1.1% | benchmark |
| 2026-09-14 | Market benchmark | -1.6% | benchmark |
| 2026-09-15 | Market benchmark | -2.0% | benchmark |
| 2026-09-16 | Market benchmark | -2.5% | benchmark |
| 2026-09-17 | Market benchmark | -1.3% | benchmark |
| 2026-09-18 | Market benchmark | -1.2% | benchmark |
| 2026-09-21 | Market benchmark | 0.3% | benchmark |
| 2026-09-22 | Market benchmark | 0.3% | benchmark |
| 2026-09-23 | Market benchmark | -0.4% | benchmark |
| 2026-09-24 | Market benchmark | -0.5% | benchmark |
| 2026-09-25 | Market benchmark | 0.0% | benchmark |
| 2026-09-28 | Market benchmark | -0.7% | benchmark |
| 2026-09-29 | Market benchmark | -0.9% | benchmark |
| 2026-09-30 | Market benchmark | -1.1% | benchmark |
| 2026-10-01 | Market benchmark | -0.9% | benchmark |
| 2026-10-02 | Market benchmark | -0.2% | benchmark |
| 2026-10-05 | Market benchmark | 0.5% | benchmark |
| 2026-10-06 | Market benchmark | 1.0% | benchmark |
| 2026-10-07 | Market benchmark | 0.8% | benchmark |
| 2026-10-08 | Market benchmark | 0.4% | benchmark |
| 2026-10-09 | Market benchmark | 1.0% | benchmark |
| 2026-10-12 | Market benchmark | 0.9% | benchmark |
| 2026-10-13 | Market benchmark | 0.9% | benchmark |
| 2026-10-14 | Market benchmark | -0.2% | benchmark |
| 2026-10-15 | Market benchmark | 0.1% | benchmark |
| 2026-10-16 | Market benchmark | -1.0% | benchmark |
| 2026-10-19 | Market benchmark | -0.6% | benchmark |
| 2026-10-20 | Market benchmark | -0.3% | benchmark |
| 2026-10-21 | Market benchmark | 0.3% | benchmark |
| 2026-10-22 | Market benchmark | -0.9% | benchmark |
| 2026-10-23 | Market benchmark | -1.4% | benchmark |
Over those 20 trading sessions, the basket A small made-up group of stocks treated as one line, so you can see how an industry moved. Here each bank counts the same amount. of big US bank stocks returned -6.1%. Over the same 20 sessions, the market benchmark A broad measure of the whole stock market, used as the yardstick. A stock that beats it did better than simply owning the market. returned -1.5%. The gap between the two over the same 20 sessions is -4.7%. The basket holds 4 banks, each given the same weight. All the price figures in this note run through 2026-10-23, the last date in our data.
Glossary
- basket
- A small made-up group of stocks treated as one line, so you can see how an industry moved. Here each bank counts the same amount.
- benchmark
- A broad measure of the whole stock market, used as the yardstick. A stock that beats it did better than simply owning the market.
Inside the group, the spread between banks was huge
Now look inside the group over a longer stretch. Over the longer 60-session window, the same basket returned -8.5%. The market benchmark returned 2.7% over that longer window. So the weakness was not a single bad morning.
Data table
| name | ret | series_role |
|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | -3.0% | peer |
| JPMorgan Chase | -5.0% | peer |
| Citigroup | -8.4% | peer |
| Bank of America | -17.7% | peer |
The four members did not move together at all. Wells Fargo returned -3.0% over the longer window. Bank of America returned -17.7% over the same window. My reading: a basket line is not each member's line, and one very weak name can pull the average far below the typical bank in it. A price-to-earnings A stock's price divided by the profit it earns per share. It is a rough gauge of how much investors are paying for each unit of profit. comparison across these four banks is not available in our data.
Glossary
- price-to-earnings
- A stock's price divided by the profit it earns per share. It is a rough gauge of how much investors are paying for each unit of profit.
How far did the weakest of these four big banks fall over the longer window?
Actual-17.7%
Bank of America returned -17.7% over the same window. That is the surprise: these banks are often lumped together, yet the worst of the four lost many times what the best one lost.
Show answer
-17.7% Bank of America returned -17.7% over the same window. That is the surprise: these banks are often lumped together, yet the worst of the four lost many times what the best one lost.
The day-after move was small, not dramatic
Zoom in on the days right around the news. The median move against the market from the day of the news was 0.2%. Wells Fargo was the strongest, at 1.7%. Bank of America was the weakest, at -1.4%. In plain words: in the days around the results, most of these banks moved roughly in line with the market.
The report said 「mixed guidance on rates and dealmaking leading shares to fall despite several beats」. My reading: the beats were largely expected already, so the weakness you see on the first chart built up over weeks in the same period rather than in one session. The gap between the group and the market is the thing to keep an eye on.
Risks
- An equal-weight basket of four names is not the whole US banking industry.
- A shared drop can come from the whole market, not from banks alone.
- One member can dominate a small basket, so the average can mislead.
Sources
- FinMind USStockPrice SPY — data as of 2026-10-23; fetched 2026-10-25 05:39 UTC; License note: FinMind open data; original source TWSE/TPEx or US exchanges
- FinMind USStockPrice BAC — data as of 2026-10-23; fetched 2026-10-25 05:39 UTC; License note: FinMind open data; original source TWSE/TPEx or US exchanges
- FinMind USStockPrice C — data as of 2026-10-23; fetched 2026-10-25 05:39 UTC; License note: FinMind open data; original source TWSE/TPEx or US exchanges
- FinMind USStockPrice JPM — data as of 2026-10-23; fetched 2026-10-25 05:39 UTC; License note: FinMind open data; original source TWSE/TPEx or US exchanges
- FinMind USStockPrice WFC — data as of 2026-10-23; fetched 2026-10-25 05:39 UTC; License note: FinMind open data; original source TWSE/TPEx or US exchanges
