ASML Holding N.V.
- Growing?
- Yes: revenue went from €21.2B in FY22 to €32.7B in FY25.
- Expensive?
- P/E (trailing) 36.8×. In line with the peer median of 34.8x.
- Analysts?
- 93% of 41 say buy; average 12-month target $2,151, 44% above today's price.
- Risky?
- Swingier than most large companies: its price swung 49% over the past year (the S&P 500's 14%), and it fell as much as 57% since Nov 2021.
ASML Holding N.V. designs and manufactures photolithography systems—including EUV and DUV scanners—used by semiconductor manufacturers to produce integrated circuits, and it also sells Installed Base Management offerings (service, upgrades, and field options).
More about ASML Holding
Revenue is primarily generated from system sales (large, project-based equipment deliveries) plus recurring-like revenue from service and installed-base options.
Market Position
ASML is widely regarded as the industry’s leading supplier of advanced lithography, with EUV lithography a key differentiator for leading-edge logic and memory production and a large, expanding installed base supporting high-margin services. Its competitive position is reinforced by deep integration with customer process roadmaps and an ecosystem of specialized suppliers supporting performance and yield improvements.
Key Segments
ASML’s business is commonly discussed as Systems (lithography tools such as EUV, ArFi, and other DUV platforms) and Installed Base Management (net service and field option sales).
How has the stock done?
Over the past month ASML fell 14.5%; the semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell 15.1% and the S&P 500 fell 2.7%.
Over the past six months ASML fell 1.6%; the semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell 10.6% and the S&P 500 rose 2.6%.
Over the past year ASML rose 44.3%; the semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose 41.1% and the S&P 500 rose 10.8%.
Over five years ASML rose 75.8%; the semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose 233.3% and the S&P 500 rose 62.0%.
From Nov 18, 2021 to Oct 14, 2022, the deepest drop from a high since Nov 2021
How much the price swings in a year; the S&P 500's was 14%
When the S&P 500 moves 1%, the stock has moved about 2.3% the same way
Change in closing price from the first day shown, or with Price the closing price itself. Prices: Yahoo Finance, to Nov 12, 2026.
Is the business growing?
Revenue went from €21.2B in FY22 to €32.7B in FY25; net income from €5.6B to €9.6B.
Show the data
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income |
|---|---|---|
| FY22 | €21.2B | €5.6B |
| FY23 | €27.6B | €7.8B |
| FY24 | €28.3B | €7.6B |
| FY25 | €32.7B | €9.6B |
Fiscal years: Yahoo Finance.
How it makes money
Of every $100 in revenue, $29.4 ends up as net income. Net margin rose from 26.6% to 29.4% over the past 3 years.
+2.3 pts over 3 years
+3.9 pts over 3 years
+2.9 pts over 3 years
Each margin is that line of the income statement divided by revenue. Fiscal year: Yahoo Finance, operating income as filed with the SEC where its quarters cover the year.
Where it is in the chip cycle
Gross margin 57.4% and rising for 4 quarters; inventory at 271 days, down from 289 a year earlier; capital spending 4.4% of revenue over the last 4 quarters.
Show the data
| Period | Gross margin |
|---|---|
| Sep ’25 | 51.6% |
| Dec ’25 | 52.2% |
| Mar ’26 | 53.0% |
| Jun ’26 | 54.0% |
| Sep ’26 | 57.4% |
Chip prices rise and fall with the cycle, and margins move with them: a margin that stops rising is often the first sign the cycle is turning.
Show the data
| Period | Inventory days |
|---|---|
| FY22 | 251 |
| FY23 | 241 |
| FY24 | 289 |
| FY25 | 271 |
How many days of sales are sitting in stock. Rising inventory days often come before a downturn: chips are being made faster than they sell.
Show the data
| Period | Capital spending |
|---|---|
| Sep ’25 | 4.2% |
| Dec ’25 | 4.8% |
| Mar ’26 | 4.8% |
| Jun ’26 | 4.1% |
| Sep ’26 | 3.8% |
Money put into factories and equipment. Heavy spending late in an upswing can leave the industry with too much capacity when demand cools.
Inventory days: year-end inventory over that year's cost of revenue, times 365.
Customers and suppliers
In its latest annual report ASML Holding buys from Carl Zeiss SMT; one customer it does not name accounts for 23.9% of its revenue. Micron Technology’s supplier awards page for 2024 to 2026 names ASML Holding as a supplier.
Suppliers
ASMLASML HoldingCustomers
Partners
Carl Zeiss SMTASML Holding invested in it · Equity investment in optical supplier holding company24.9% equity interestCarl ZeissPartnership and joint venture agreementChanges since the previous annual report (20-F filed Mar 5, 2025)
Show the filing's words
| Company | Role | In the filing's words |
|---|---|---|
| Mistral AI | partner · ASML Holding invested in it | “On September 9, 2025, ASML and Mistral AI announced an investment and partnership agreement for which ASML invested €1.3 billion in Mistral AI’s Series C funding round as lead investor. This resulted in ASML holding an 11.1% share on a fully diluted basis in Mistral AI as per December 31, 2025.” |
| Our largest customer (unnamed) | customer | “Total net sales to our largest customer amounted to €7,796.7 million, or 23.9% of total net sales in 2025, compared with €4,682.4 million, or 16.6% of total net sales in 2024.” |
| Carl Zeiss SMT | supplier | “Carl Zeiss SMT GmbH is our single supplier, and we are their single customer, of optical columns for lithography systems.” |
| Carl Zeiss SMT | partner · ASML Holding invested in it | “Equity method investments consists of a 24.9% equity interest acquired on June 29, 2017, in Carl Zeiss SMT Holding GmbH & Co. KG, a limited partnership that owns Carl Zeiss SMT GmbH, our single supplier of optical columns.” |
| HighTechXL | partner · ASML Holding invested in it | “Our company has investments in two associates and made an equity investment this year....For HighTechXL Group B.V. and Mistral AI, this is calculated using the average-data method from GHG Protocol.” |
| Nikon | partner · licensing deal with it | “Nikon-ASML Patent Cross-License Agreement, dated December 10, 2004, between ASML Holding N.V. and Nikon Corporation (Incorporated by reference to the Registrant’s Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2014)1” |
| Carl Zeiss | partner · joint venture with it | “Partnership and Joint Venture Agreement, among Carl Zeiss AG, ASML Holding N.V. and Carl Zeiss SMT Holding Management GmbH, dated June 29, 2017 (Incorporated by reference to the Registrant’s Annual” |
| Intel (10-K filed Jan 23, 2026) | calls it a supplier | “For example, ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) is currently the sole supplier of EUV lithography tools that we are deploying in our Intel 4, Intel 3, Intel 18A and planned future leading-edge manufacturing process nodes.” |
| Micron Technology (supplier awards page published Oct 22, 2026) | calls it a supplier | “Scott DeBoer, President and Chief Technology and Products Officer (right), presenting the Outstanding Performance in Front End Capital Award to Jim Koonmen, Chief Customer Officer of ASML” |
Only the companies ASML Holding names in its 20-F filed Feb 25, 2026 (SEC). The supply chain joins the latest annual reports of the companies on it and the 8-Ks they filed since: a link shows when either side's report names the other, so it grows as more reports are read. Also from other documents: Micron Technology’s supplier awards page for 2024 to 2026, published Oct 22, 2026 (source). Hover a name for the filing's own words. Customers it does not name are listed as the filing describes them.
Is it expensive?
P/E of 36.8x, in line with the peer median of 34.8x, with earnings still growing.
In line with the peer median of 34.8x.
Show the data
| Company | P/E (trailing) |
|---|---|
| Q · Qnity Electronics, Inc. | 46.1× |
| KLAC · KLA Corporation | 39.4× |
| ASML · ASML Holding N.V. | 36.8× |
| LRCX · Lam Research Corporation | 34.8× |
| AMAT · Applied Materials, Inc. | 32.9× |
| TER · Teradyne, Inc. | 30.3× |
What analysts expect
The average analyst price target is $2,151, 44% above the current price; 93% of 41 analysts rate it a buy; earnings beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters.
Buy or Strong Buy: 38 analysts (93%). Sell or Strong Sell: 1.
Over the past year the average of the analysts' latest price targets went from $1,155.00 to $2,383.60 (+106%), while ASML went from $1,019.86 to $1,497.12 (+47%). In the past three months targets were cut once and never raised. 3 upgrades and no downgrades over the year; the latest: Barclays moved it to Overweight from Equal-Weight on Jan 29, 2026.
Show every change
| Date | Firm | Change | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | JP Morgan | Target cut | Overweight | $2,350.00, was $2,400.00 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $2,400.00, was $2,200.00 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $2,500.00, was $2,200.00 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $2,100.00, was $2,000.00 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $2,000.00, was $1,700.00 |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Bernstein | Target raised | Outperform | $2,623.00, was $1,971.00 |
| Jun 22, 2026 | B of A Securities | Target raised | Buy | $2,345.00, was $2,268.00 |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $2,200.00, was $1,750.00 |
| Jun 3, 2026 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $2,200.00, was $1,813.00 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $1,750.00, was $1,650.00 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $1,700.00, was $1,625.00 |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Bernstein | Target raised | Outperform | $1,971.00, was $1,911.00 |
| Jan 29, 2026 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $1,625.00, was $1,550.00 |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $1,650.00, was $1,450.00 |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Barclays | Upgrade | Overweight, was Equal-Weight | — |
| Jan 22, 2026 | Bernstein | Target raised | Outperform | $1,642.00, was $1,528.00 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | KGI Securities | Upgrade | Outperform, was Hold | $1,415.00 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $1,450.00, was $1,140.00 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | RBC Capital | Began coverage | Outperform | $1,550.00 |
| Jan 14, 2026 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $1,518.00, was $1,275.00 |
| Jan 5, 2026 | Bernstein | Upgrade | Outperform, was Market Perform | $1,528.00, was $935.00 |
| Dec 3, 2025 | B of A Securities | Target raised | Buy | $1,331.00, was $1,092.00 |
| Dec 1, 2025 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $1,275.00, was $1,175.00 |
| Nov 19, 2025 | Freedom Broker | Target raised | Hold | $950.00, was $790.00 |
Show the data
| Quarter | Estimate | Reported | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec ’25 | €7.55 | €7.34 | −2.8% |
| Mar ’26 | €6.62 | €7.15 | +8.0% |
| Jun ’26 | €6.95 | €7.58 | +9.1% |
| Sep ’26 | €10.76 | €11.82 | +9.9% |
Targets, ratings and earnings estimates: Yahoo Finance. Rating and target changes: Yahoo Finance's list of upgrades and downgrades. The average target on each day is the average of every listed firm's latest target set in the 180 days before it, so it counts fewer analysts than the average target above, and the band is the middle half of those targets (a quarter of the firms are above it, a quarter below); a target set before a stock split is divided by the split.
Where the cash goes
Generated €21.0B in free cash flow over the year, of which €10.8B went back to shareholders (dividends plus buybacks), leaving €10.2B in the company.
Show the data
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Op. cash flow | €22.7B |
| Capex | −€1.7B |
| Free cash flow | €21.0B |
| Dividends | −€3.0B |
| Buybacks | −€7.8B |
| Cash retained | €10.2B |
Free cash flow: operating cash flow minus capital spending. Last 4 quarters: Yahoo Finance, buybacks from SEC filings where they have the quarter.
Financial health
Current ratio 1.3, short-term debt is manageable; debt-to-equity 0.2, debt is very low and the balance sheet is solid.
Assets that can be turned into cash soon are 1.3x what is owed within a year. 1.5 or higher is comfortable; below 1 needs watching.
For every $1 of shareholder funds, there is $0.2 of debt. The higher the number, the more pressure when the economy weakens.
Cash and short-term investments of €13.3B against debt of €4.4B. It also holds €2.1B of long-term investments, which can be stakes in other companies rather than cash.
Latest fiscal year balance sheet. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Who holds it
5 portfolios Hunch tracks hold ASML: 5 funds. It is 9.2% of Fisher Asset Management's portfolio (2.5% as filed).
FundFisher Asset ManagementASML is 9% of this portfolio+39.7%
FundCloudAlpha Capital Management Limited/Hong KongASML is 8% of this portfolio+102.6%
FundLight Street Capital ManagementASML is 6% of this portfolio+117.6%
FundTensor Edge CapitalASML is 6% of this portfolio-13.5%
FundUNICOM SystemsASML is 6% of this portfolio-7.3%
ASML's weight in each portfolio is its target weight in the copy Hunch follows: the stocks of the latest filing that the app can trade, their weights scaled up to add to 100%. “As filed” is its weight in the filing itself: a fund’s latest 13F, or a member of Congress’s holdings from the last annual report and the trades disclosed since, each at the low end of its range. Returns are backtests based on public filings, not actual trading results. Photo credits
What did the funds Hunch tracks do?
Of the 83 funds whose 13F filings Hunch reads, 21 held ASML at the end of their latest quarter (for most, Q2 2026). Over that quarter 8 added shares, 9 cut, 3 bought new, 2 sold all and 1 held the same. The largest of them is Fisher Asset Management, 4.84M shares worth $8.8B at Sep 30, 2026, 2.1% more than a quarter earlier.
3 of them new holders
2 of them sold all
Show every fund
| Fund | Quarter | Shares | Value | Change in shares | Change | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fisher Asset Management | Q3 2026 | 4.84M | $8.8B | +101,588 | +2.1% | Nov 6, 2026 |
| Lone Pine Capital | Q2 2026 | 569,174 | $1.1B | −85,974 | −13% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Coatue Management | Q2 2026 | 295,406 | $588M | −200,828 | −40% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Mirae Asset Global Investments | Q3 2026 | 172,139 | $312M | −1,897 | −1.1% | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Hyperion Asset Management | Q3 2026 | 150,408 | $272M | +13,099 | +9.5% | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Bridgewater Associates | Q2 2026 | 61,675 | $123M | −30,521 | −33% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Appaloosa | Q2 2026 | 50,000 | $99.5M | +500 | +1.0% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Temasek Holdings (Private) | Q3 2026 | 41,905 | $75.9M | −70,174 | −63% | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Nomura Holdings | Q2 2026 | 36,545 | $72.7M | +21,287 | +140% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Third Point | Q2 2026 | 30,000 | $59.6M | +18,000 | +150% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| UNICOM Systems | Q3 2026 | 29,000 | $52.5M | 0 | 0.0% | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Soma Equity Partners | Q2 2026 | 21,532 | $42.8M | −617 | −2.8% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Tensor Edge Capital | Q3 2026 | 22,710 | $41.1M | −904 | −3.8% | Nov 6, 2026 |
| CloudAlpha Capital Management Limited/Hong Kong | Q3 2026 | 19,988 | $36.2M | +19,988 | New | Nov 9, 2026 |
| Norges Bank | Q2 2026 vs Q4 2025 | 16,869 | $33.6M | +16,869 | New | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Polen Capital Management | Q2 2026 | 15,427 | $30.7M | −645 | −4.0% | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Stony Point Capital | Q2 2026 | 15,341 | $30.5M | +15,341 | New | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Light Street Capital Management | Q2 2026 | 10,957 | $21.8M | +11 | +0.1% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Nan Shan Life Insurance | Q2 2026 | 7,879 | $15.7M | +7,710 | +4562% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Tudor Investment Corp Et Al | Q2 2026 | 0 | — | −8,237 | Sold all | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Situational Awareness | Q2 2026 | 0 | — | −4,633 | Sold all | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Maverick Capital | Q2 2026 | 980 | $1.9M | −257,397 | −100% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Renaissance Technologies | Q3 2026 | 382 | $696K | +179 | +88% | Nov 12, 2026 |
From the 13F filings of the 83 funds Hunch tracks, not of every institution: each fund's shares of ASML at its latest quarter end against the quarter before, as filed (long positions only, options left out), the quarter before put on the latest quarter's share count across a split. A fund files 45 days after its quarter ends, so some have a newer quarter than others. Value is at the quarter end. Norges Bank filed its 13F for Q1 2026 confidentially, with no holdings made public, so its row compares Q2 2026 with Q4 2025.
Logo: Nvidia, Apache License 2.0.
