Fair Isaac Corporation

How has the stock done?

Change in closing price from the first day shown, or with Price the closing price itself. Prices: Yahoo Finance, to Nov 12, 2026. Dashed lines: the days the company released earnings (its SEC 8-K filings); EPS estimates: Yahoo Finance. The stock's move after a release runs from the last close before its day to the close the day after (or five days after), so a release before the open counts like one after the close.

Is the business growing?

In the fiscal year to Sep 2026, Scores was 65% and On-premises and SaaS software was 32% of revenue; Scores rose from 54% in the fiscal year to Sep 2024.

Quarters: Fair Isaac Corporation's SEC filings, named by the month they end. Fiscal years: Fair Isaac Corporation's annual reports to the SEC.

How it makes money

Of every $100 in revenue, $32.7 ends up as net income. Net margin rose from 27.1% to 32.7% over the past 3 years.

Circled: Dec 2024 (net 34.7%, operating 40.8%). Net margin is usually about 15 points below operating margin; in that quarter something below operating income (a tax charge or benefit, a gain or loss on investments, a write-down) moved it, not the business itself.

Each margin is that line of the income statement divided by revenue. Fiscal year: Fair Isaac Corporation's annual reports to the SEC; quarters: SEC filings.

Growth and margins together

Rule of 40 score 69.6 (growth 27.4% + FCF margin 42.2%): strong, clears the 40 line. Stock pay is 7.3% of revenue; counted as a cost, it brings the FCF margin down to 34.9%.

Fair Isaac trades at 8.1× revenue on 27.4% growth. SNOW grows fastest of its peers, 35.1%, and costs 19.4×.

Growth: revenue in the quarter ended Sep 2026 against the quarter ended Sep 2025. FCF margin: operating cash flow minus capex, over revenue, for the 4 quarters ended Sep 2026. From SEC filings.

Customers and suppliers

In its latest annual report Fair Isaac sells to Experian, TransUnion, Equifax; it names no suppliers.

 

FFICOFair Isaac

Customers

Equifax EFX 10%

TransUnion TRU 10%

Experian EXPN.L 10%

Fair Isaac's 10-K for the year to Sep 2026 gives three customers' shares of its revenue: Equifax (10%), Experian (10%) and Trans Union (10%). Separately, it gives a group of customers: Trans Union Equifax And Experian Customers (60%).

From Fair Isaac Corporation's 10-Q and 10-K filings (XBRL): each customer whose share of revenue a filing tags, under the filing's own label, so “Customer A” in one filing can be another company in the next; a later filing's figures for a period replace an earlier one's. A dash is a group of customers the filing gives (a government's agencies, the largest customers together, all the others): it can include the customers beside it, so the shares need not add up. Rings are fiscal years: a 10-K gives the year, not its fourth quarter.

Partners

LexisNexis Risk Solutions RELXDistributes FICO Score XD to lenders

Equifax EFXDistributes FICO scoring products

PPlaidDistributes UltraFICO Score to lenders

Experian EXPN.LLicensed distribution of consumer FICO Scores

TransUnion TRUDistributes FICO scoring products

Only the companies Fair Isaac names in its 10-K filed Nov 6, 2026 (SEC). The supply chain joins the latest annual reports of the companies on it and the 8-Ks they filed since: a link shows when either side's report names the other, so it grows as more reports are read. Hover a name for the filing's own words.

Is it expensive?

EV/revenue of 8.1x, in line with the peer median of 7.0x.

EV/revenue in line with the peer median of 7.0x: priced like its peers.

Compared on enterprise value (market cap plus debt minus cash) per $1 of revenue: for companies that reinvest what they earn or borrow to grow (software, AI data centers), P/E can mislead.

What analysts expect

The average analyst price target is $822, 15% above the current price; 43% of 21 analysts rate it a buy; earnings beat estimates in all of the last 4 quarters.

Buy or Strong Buy: 9 analysts (43%). Sell or Strong Sell: 2.

Over the past year the average of the analysts' latest price targets went from $2,002.55 to $897.67 (−55%), while FICO went from $1,737.27 to $717.38 (−59%). In the past three months targets were cut 22 times and never raised. No upgrades and 4 downgrades over the year; the latest: RBC Capital moved it to Sector Perform from Outperform on Nov 5, 2026.

The day after each of these reports the stock moved −2.8% (Dec 2025, beat); +2.9% (Mar 2026, beat); −14.7% (Jun 2026, beat); −2.3% (Sep 2026, beat).

For the quarter ending Dec 2026 (Fair Isaac reports on Jan 27, 2027), analysts expect adjusted earnings of $9.41 a share, 28% more than the $7.33 of a year earlier, and revenue of $604M, up 18% on a year earlier. For the fiscal year ending Sep 2027, they expect adjusted earnings of $44.75 a share, 4% more than the $43.11 of the year before, and revenue of $2.6B, up 2% on the year before.

Targets, ratings and earnings estimates: Yahoo Finance. Rating and target changes: Yahoo Finance's list of upgrades and downgrades. The average target on each day is the average of every listed firm's latest target set in the 180 days before it, so it counts fewer analysts than the average target above, and the band is the middle half of those targets (a quarter of the firms are above it, a quarter below); a target set before a stock split is divided by the split. Expected figures: the average of the analysts' estimates (Yahoo Finance). Their EPS is adjusted, as analysts estimate it, so it is set against the adjusted EPS Yahoo reports for the same quarters, not the GAAP EPS of the growth and valuation sections; revenue against the SEC filings. No change is given against a quarter whose reported EPS was more than 50% off its own estimate (often a one-off gain or charge), nor against a year that counts one. Each estimate is pinned to its fiscal period by the report date or the period's end, and one that cannot be is left out.

Where the cash goes

Generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the year and returned more than it generated: $3.0B went back to shareholders (dividends plus buybacks), so $2.0B came from cash on hand or borrowing.

Fair Isaac had 23M diluted shares in the quarter ended Jun 2026, 7.6% fewer than a year earlier, and 4.4% fewer each year on average since Jun 2020. It spent $3.0B on buybacks over the last four quarters. Over the last four quarters its earnings per share rose 36.9% and its net income rose 28.1%: fewer shares added about 9 points.

Free cash flow: operating cash flow minus capital spending on property, plant and equipment, from SEC filings, for the last 4 quarters and by quarter. Shares: each quarter's diluted weighted average as filed with the SEC, since the stock's listing and its latest split.

Financial health

Current ratio 0.8, short-term debt coverage is tight; shareholder equity is below zero; net debt is 2.7 years of operating cash flow, which is manageable.

Latest fiscal year balance sheet. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Who holds it

In the filings of 1 member of Congress and 6 funds whose copy leaves FICO out (on the exchange, not in the app yet): Blue Whale Capital, Fundsmith, Rob Bresnahan, Norges Bank, Swiss National Bank, Mirae Asset Global Investments and 1 more.

What did the funds Hunch tracks do?

Of the 83 funds whose 13F filings Hunch reads, 11 held FICO at the end of their latest quarter (for most, Q2 2026). Over that quarter 4 added shares, 6 cut, 1 bought new and 2 sold all. The largest of them is Norges Bank, 191,363 shares worth $229M at Jun 30, 2026, 34.0% fewer than at Dec 31, 2025.

From the 13F filings of the 83 funds Hunch tracks, not of every institution: each fund's shares of FICO at its latest quarter end against the quarter before, as filed (long positions only, options left out), the quarter before put on the latest quarter's share count across a split. A fund files 45 days after its quarter ends, so some have a newer quarter than others. Value is at the quarter end. Norges Bank filed its 13F for Q1 2026 confidentially, with no holdings made public, so its row compares Q2 2026 with Q4 2025.

Are insiders buying or selling?

Officers and directors bought $7,367 and sold $6.5M of FICO on the open market in the 12 months to Nov 12, 2026. 46% of the sales were made under 10b5-1 plans, set up in advance. The largest was Eva Manolis (Director), who sold $2.9M in 3 sales.

From the Form 4s filed with the SEC about Fair Isaac Corporation (44 in the 12 months): purchases (code P) and sales (code S) on the open market by its officers and directors, at the price each filing gives (often an average of the day's trades). A sale is a 10b5-1 sale when its filing says it was made under such a plan, set up in advance. Not counted: 59 other transactions (option exercises, shares withheld for tax and gifts).