Onto Innovation Inc.

How has the stock done?

Change in closing price from the first day shown, or with Price the closing price itself. Prices: Yahoo Finance, to Nov 12, 2026. Dashed lines: the days the company released earnings (its SEC 8-K filings); EPS estimates: Yahoo Finance. The stock's move after a release runs from the last close before its day to the close the day after (or five days after), so a release before the open counts like one after the close.

Is the business growing?

In the fiscal year to Dec 2025, Systems and Software Revenue was 84% and Parts Revenue was 8% of revenue.

In the fiscal year to Dec 2025, Taiwan was 32% and South Korea was 28% of revenue; Taiwan rose from 17% in the fiscal year to Dec 2023; China was 7%, from 17% in the fiscal year to Dec 2023.

Quarters: Onto Innovation Inc.'s SEC filings, named by the month they end. Fiscal years: Onto Innovation Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC.

How it makes money

Of every $100 in revenue, $13.6 ends up as net income. Net margin fell from 22.2% to 13.6% over the past 3 years.

Circled: Sep 2026 (net 11.4%, operating 23.3%). Net margin is usually about 1 point above operating margin; in that quarter something below operating income (a tax charge or benefit, a gain or loss on investments, a write-down) moved it, not the business itself.

Each margin is that line of the income statement divided by revenue. Fiscal year: Onto Innovation Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC; quarters: SEC filings.

Where it is in the chip cycle

Gross margin 54.8% and rising for 3 quarters; inventory at 215 days and falling for 2 years; capital spending 1.1% of revenue over the last 4 quarters.

Gross margin by fiscal quarter, from SEC filings. Inventory days: year-end inventory over that year's cost of revenue, times 365.

Customers and suppliers

In its latest annual report Onto Innovation sells to TSMC, Samsung, Toshiba; one customer it does not name accounts for 20% of its revenue; it names no suppliers. Since then its 8-K filings name Rigaku as a partner (Apr 21, 2026).

 

ONTOOnto Innovation

Customers

Unnamed customer 20%

TSMC TSM

Samsung 005930.KS

Toshiba

Their customers

Broadcom AVGOfrom TSMC

AMD AMDfrom TSMC, Samsung

Analog Devices ADIfrom TSMC

Ambarella AMBAfrom Samsung

Fortinet FTNTfrom Samsung, TSMC +1

Show 5

Onto Innovation's 10-Q for the quarter to Mar 2026 gives three customers' shares of its revenue: Customer A (14.4%), Customer B (13.4%) and Customer C (13.3%).

From Onto Innovation Inc.'s 10-Q and 10-K filings (XBRL): each customer whose share of revenue a filing tags, under the filing's own label, so “Customer A” in one filing can be another company in the next; a later filing's figures for a period replace an earlier one's. Rings are fiscal years: a 10-K gives the year, not its fourth quarter.

Partners

Rigaku RGKUYOnto Innovation invested in it · Capital and business alliance; minority equity investment · 8-K, Apr 21, 202627% equity interest (61,123,436 shares), approximately $710 million; agreed April 21, 2026

Only the companies Onto Innovation names in its 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026 (SEC) and in the 8-Ks it filed since, each with its date. The supply chain joins the latest annual reports of the companies on it and the 8-Ks they filed since: a link shows when either side's report names the other, so it grows as more reports are read. Hover a name for the filing's own words. Customers it does not name are listed as the filing describes them.

Is it expensive?

P/E of 69x, above the peer median of 34.8x, so it needs earnings to keep growing to hold up.

Priced 98% above the peer median of 34.8x.

At 69.0× trailing earnings ONTO is above most of its five-year range; the five-year median is 38.3×.

Closing price over diluted earnings per share of the last four reported quarters, as known on each day (a quarter counts 35 days after it ends). From SEC filings; earnings per share adjusted for splits.

What analysts expect

The average analyst price target is $368, 76% above the current price; 100% of 12 analysts rate it a buy; earnings beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters.

Buy or Strong Buy: 12 analysts (100%). Sell or Strong Sell: 0.

Over the past year the average of the analysts' latest price targets went from $150.00 to $372.73 (+148%), while ONTO went from $129.73 to $209.67 (+62%). In the past three months targets were cut 3 times and never raised. 2 upgrades and no downgrades over the year; the latest: Stifel moved it to Buy from Hold on Apr 17, 2026.

The day after each of these reports the stock moved −1.6% (Dec 2025, in line); −1.8% (Mar 2026, in line); +11.7% (Jun 2026, beat); +14.0% (Sep 2026, beat).

For the quarter ending Dec 2026, analysts expect adjusted earnings of $2.60 a share, 107% more than the $1.26 of a year earlier, and revenue of $427M, up 60% on a year earlier. For the fiscal year ending Dec 2027, they expect adjusted earnings of $12.21 a share, 49% more than the year before's estimate of $8.22, and revenue of $1.9B, up 31% on the year before's estimate.

Targets, ratings and earnings estimates: Yahoo Finance. Rating and target changes: Yahoo Finance's list of upgrades and downgrades. The average target on each day is the average of every listed firm's latest target set in the 180 days before it, so it counts fewer analysts than the average target above, and the band is the middle half of those targets (a quarter of the firms are above it, a quarter below); a target set before a stock split is divided by the split. Expected figures: the average of the analysts' estimates (Yahoo Finance). Their EPS is adjusted, as analysts estimate it, so it is set against the adjusted EPS Yahoo reports for the same quarters, not the GAAP EPS of the growth and valuation sections; revenue against the SEC filings. No change is given against a quarter whose reported EPS was more than 50% off its own estimate (often a one-off gain or charge), nor against a year that counts one. Each estimate is pinned to its fiscal period by the report date or the period's end, and one that cannot be is left out.

Where the cash goes

Generated $248M in free cash flow over the year, of which $205M went back to shareholders (dividends plus buybacks), leaving $43M in the company.

Onto Innovation had 49M diluted shares in the quarter ended Sep 2026, 0.3% more than a year earlier, and 0.1% more each year on average since Jun 2020. It spent $205M on buybacks over the last four quarters. Over the last four quarters its earnings per share fell 14.1% and its net income fell 13.6%: more shares took about 1 point off.

Free cash flow: operating cash flow minus capital spending on property, plant and equipment, from SEC filings, for the last 4 quarters and by quarter. Shares: each quarter's diluted weighted average as filed with the SEC, since the stock's listing and its latest split.

Financial health

Current ratio 5.8, no pressure to repay short-term debt; debt-to-equity 0.0, debt is very low and the balance sheet is solid.

Latest fiscal year balance sheet. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Who holds it

In the filings of 6 funds whose copy leaves ONTO out (on the exchange, not in the app yet): Bridgewater Associates, Fisher Asset Management, Norges Bank, Swiss National Bank, Maverick Capital, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board.

What did the funds Hunch tracks do?

Of the 83 funds whose 13F filings Hunch reads, 10 held ONTO at the end of their latest quarter (for most, Q2 2026). Over that quarter 8 cut, 2 bought new and 1 sold all. The largest of them is Norges Bank, 649,734 shares worth $246M at Jun 30, 2026, 2.3% fewer than at Dec 31, 2025.

From the 13F filings of the 83 funds Hunch tracks, not of every institution: each fund's shares of ONTO at its latest quarter end against the quarter before, as filed (long positions only, options left out), the quarter before put on the latest quarter's share count across a split. A fund files 45 days after its quarter ends, so some have a newer quarter than others. Value is at the quarter end. Norges Bank filed its 13F for Q1 2026 confidentially, with no holdings made public, so its row compares Q2 2026 with Q4 2025.

Are insiders buying or selling?

Officers and directors sold $902K of ONTO on the open market in the 12 months to Nov 12, 2026; none bought. 100% of the sales were made under 10b5-1 plans, set up in advance. The largest was David Brian Miller (Director), who sold $600K in 1 sale.

From the Form 4s filed with the SEC about Onto Innovation Inc. (26 in the 12 months): purchases (code P) and sales (code S) on the open market by its officers and directors, at the price each filing gives (often an average of the day's trades). A sale is a 10b5-1 sale when its filing says it was made under such a plan, set up in advance. Not counted: 38 other transactions (grants, option exercises, shares withheld for tax and gifts).