
Red Cat Holdings, Inc.
- What it sells
- Product related is 93% of revenue (fiscal year to Dec 2025).
- Growing?
- Yes: revenue up 527% on a year earlier (quarter ended Jun 2026).
- Expensive?
- Price-to-sales (P/S) 8.4×. Above the peer median of 2.8x. The market pays more per $1 of revenue than for peers.
- Analysts?
- 86% of 7 say buy; average 12-month target $15.57, 296% above today's price.
- Risky?
- Much swingier than most large companies: its price swung 108% over the past year (the S&P 500's 14%), and it fell as much as 80% since Nov 2021.
Red Cat Holdings, Inc. is a U.S. provider of uncrewed systems for defense, government, and public safety, delivering American-made drone hardware and related software through subsidiaries including Teal Drones (e.g., Black Widow™ sUAS) and FlightWave Aerospace (e.g., Edge 130 VTOL tricopter), and expanding into uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) via Blue Ops.
More about Red Cat Holdings
Revenue is primarily generated from system sales (platforms, payloads, spares) and related support/services, with a meaningful portion tied to government procurement cycles.
Market Position
Red Cat competes in the U.S. “secure/NDAA-compliant” sUAS market where Blue UAS alignment and domestic manufacturing are key differentiators; it faces large share incumbency from DJI globally and domestic competition such as Skydio in U.S. markets. The company positions around a multi-platform Family of Systems approach spanning air (ISR/FPV) and maritime (USVs), plus partnerships for autonomy and mission software.
Key Segments
Red Cat operates through product-focused subsidiaries spanning small UAS (Teal Drones), VTOL/extended-range UAS (FlightWave Aerospace), remote inspection / confined-space drone solutions (Skypersonic), and USVs (Blue Ops).
How has the stock done?
Over the past month RCAT fell 27.0%; the aerospace & defense ETF (ITA) rose 4.4% and the S&P 500 fell 2.7%.
Over the past six months RCAT fell 64.3%; the aerospace & defense ETF (ITA) fell 4.5% and the S&P 500 rose 2.6%.
Over the past year RCAT fell 54.0%; the aerospace & defense ETF (ITA) rose 2.6% and the S&P 500 rose 10.8%.
Over five years RCAT rose 45.7%; the aerospace & defense ETF (ITA) rose 101.4% and the S&P 500 rose 62.0%.
From Jan 22, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026, the deepest drop from a high since Nov 2021
How much the price swings in a year; the S&P 500's was 14%
When the S&P 500 moves 1%, the stock has moved about 3.5% the same way
Show the earnings releases
| Released | Quarter | Revenue | EPS vs estimate | Stock, day after | 5 days after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | ended Jun 2026 | $20M (+527% vs a year earlier) | −$0.23 vs −$0.17 (missed) | +6.4% | +18.1% |
| May 7, 2026 | ended Mar 2026 | $15M (+849% vs a year earlier) | −$0.22 vs −$0.12 (missed) | −2.4% | −8.3% |
| Mar 18, 2026 | ended Dec 2025 | $26M | −$0.17 vs −$0.15 (missed) | −10.8% | −6.5% |
| Mar 18, 2024 | ended Jan 2024 | $5.8M (+251% vs a year earlier) | — | −2.7% | +3.5% |
| Sep 15, 2023 | ended Jul 2023 | $1.7M (+55% vs a year earlier) | — | −3.0% | −2.4% |
Change in closing price from the first day shown, or with Price the closing price itself. Prices: Yahoo Finance, to Nov 12, 2026. Dashed lines: the days the company released earnings (its SEC 8-K filings); EPS estimates: Yahoo Finance. The stock's move after a release runs from the last close before its day to the close the day after (or five days after), so a release before the open counts like one after the close.
Is the business growing?
Revenue was $20M in the quarter ended Jun 2026, up 527% from a year earlier.
Show the data
| Quarter ended | Revenue | vs a year earlier |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2023 | $1.1M | +68% |
| Jul 2023 | $1.7M | +55% |
| Oct 2023 | $3.9M | +426% |
| Jan 2024 | $5.8M | +251% |
| Mar 2024 | $6.6M | — |
| Apr 2024 | $6.3M | +485% |
| Jun 2024 | $6.4M | — |
| Jul 2024 | $2.8M | +59% |
| Sep 2024 | $1.3M | — |
| Oct 2024 | $1.5M | −61% |
| Mar 2025 | $1.6M | −75% |
| Jun 2025 | $3.2M | −50% |
| Sep 2025 | $9.6M | +646% |
| Dec 2025 | $26M | — |
| Mar 2026 | $15M | +849% |
| Jun 2026 | $20M | +527% |
Revenue went from $6M in FY22 to $41M in FY25; net income from −$12M to −$72M.
Show the data
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income |
|---|---|---|
| FY22 | $6M | −$12M |
| FY23 | $5M | −$28M |
| FY24 | $18M | −$24M |
| FY25 | $41M | −$72M |
In the fiscal year to Dec 2025, Product related was 93% and Contract related was 7% of revenue; Product related rose from 77% in the fiscal year to Apr 2024.
Show the data
| Fiscal year | Part | Revenue | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | Product related | $14M | 77% |
| FY2024 | Contract related | $4.2M | 23% |
| FY2025 | Product related | $38M | 93% |
| FY2025 | Contract related | $2.9M | 7% |
A year earlier −$0.15
Diluted, from SEC filings
Quarters: Red Cat Holdings, Inc.'s SEC filings, named by the month they end. Fiscal years: Red Cat Holdings, Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC.
How it makes money
The company loses $177.0 for every $100 of revenue. Operating expenses exceed all of gross profit.
Show the data
| Quarter ended | Gross | Operating | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2023 | −87.4% | −1,053.1% | −1,053.4% |
| Jul 2023 | 10.0% | −320.0% | −333.9% |
| Oct 2023 | 30.5% | −133.4% | −148.7% |
| Jan 2024 | 18.8% | −76.0% | −93.9% |
| Mar 2024 | 17.0% | −91.4% | −102.5% |
| Apr 2024 | 19.1% | −119.0% | −112.1% |
| Jun 2024 | 4.2% | −83.7% | −127.1% |
| Jul 2024 | −17.4% | −447.2% | −447.2% |
| Sep 2024 | −30.3% | −653.2% | −962.0% |
| Oct 2024 | −1.5% | −868.9% | −868.9% |
| Mar 2025 | −52.2% | −765.7% | −1,418.9% |
| Jun 2025 | 11.7% | −392.9% | −412.6% |
| Sep 2025 | 6.6% | −181.7% | −166.0% |
| Dec 2025 | 4.2% | −91.3% | −74.9% |
| Mar 2026 | 12.7% | −176.5% | −171.6% |
| Jun 2026 | 16.1% | −191.4% | −174.6% |
Beyond ±100% the scale is logarithmic, so that Mar 2025's −1,419% and the quarters near zero both read. Circled: Sep 2024 (net −962.0%, operating −653.2%), Mar 2025 (net −1,418.9%, operating −765.7%). Net margin is usually about 6 points below operating margin; in those quarters something below operating income (a tax charge or benefit, a gain or loss on investments, a write-down) moved it, not the business itself.
−11.3 pts over 3 years
Loss exceeds revenue
Loss exceeds revenue
Each margin is that line of the income statement divided by revenue. Fiscal year: Red Cat Holdings, Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC; quarters: SEC filings.
Customers and suppliers
In its latest annual report Red Cat Holdings sells to the U.S. government; one customer it does not name accounts for 73% of its revenue; it names no suppliers.
Customers
Red Cat Holdings's 10-Q for the quarter to Mar 2026 gives two customers' shares of its revenue: Customer A (56%) and Customer B (19%).
Show the filings' numbers
| Period | Customer | Share of revenue | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year ended Apr 2024 | Customer One | 28% | 10-K filed Mar 19, 2026 |
| Year ended Apr 2024 | Customer Two | 23% | 10-K filed Mar 19, 2026 |
| Year ended Apr 2024 | Customer Three | 10% | 10-K filed Mar 19, 2026 |
| Quarter ended Mar 2025 | Customer C | 31% | 10-Q filed May 7, 2026 |
| Quarter ended Mar 2025 | Customer D | 26% | 10-Q filed May 7, 2026 |
| Quarter ended Mar 2025 | Customer E | 17% | 10-Q filed May 7, 2026 |
| Year ended Dec 2025 | Customer One | 73% | 10-K filed Mar 19, 2026 |
| Quarter ended Mar 2026 | Customer A | 56% | 10-Q filed May 7, 2026 |
| Quarter ended Mar 2026 | Customer B | 19% | 10-Q filed May 7, 2026 |
From Red Cat Holdings, Inc.'s 10-Q and 10-K filings (XBRL): each customer whose share of revenue a filing tags, under the filing's own label, so “Customer A” in one filing can be another company in the next; a later filing's figures for a period replace an earlier one's. Rings are fiscal years: a 10-K gives the year, not its fourth quarter.
Partners
Changes since the previous annual report (10-K filed Aug 8, 2024)
Show the filing's words
| Company | Role | In the filing's words |
|---|---|---|
| AeroVironment | partner · co-develops with it | “We announced a development roadmap with AeroVironment, Inc. ("AV") (NASDAQ: AVAV) to enable our FANGTM FPV drones to be deployed as a payload from AV’s P550TM all-electric Group 2 eVTOL UAS.” |
| Palantir | partner | “We successfully completed flight testing of our Black WidowTM drone equipped with Palantir Technologies Inc. (Nasdaq: PLTR) Visual Navigation (VNav) Software. The test demonstrated that the Black WidowTM drone can navigate in GPS-denied conditions using Palantir’s visual-based navigation software.” |
| Apium | partner | “Apium Swarm Robotics, Inc., a developer of distributed autonomy for unmanned systems, signed a memorandum of agreement with the Company and joined the Red Cat Futures Initiative. The Futures Initiative is a strategic collaboration aimed to fast-track the deployment of autonomous systems across air, land, and sea.” |
| U.S. government | customer | “In fiscal year 2025, we generated approximately 73% of our total revenues from contracts with the U.S. Government.” |
| One customer (unnamed) | customer | “For the year ended December 31, 2025, one customer accounted for equal to or greater than 10% of total revenue, totaling 73%.” |
| Firestorm | partner · Red Cat Holdings invested in it | “In November 2022, the Company entered into a SAFE (Simple Agreement for Future Equity) agreement with Firestorm Labs, Inc. (“Firestorm”) under which it made a payment of $0.3 million to Firestorm in exchange for the right to certain shares of Firestorm stock....In July 2025, Firestorm completed a Series A Preferred Stock financing, and the Company's SAFE investment converted into shares of Firestorm's Series A Preferred Stock.” |
| Lind X | partner · invested in Red Cat Holdings | “In September 2024, the Company entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “September 2024 SPA”) with Lind Global Asset Management X LLC (“Lind X”). Under the September 2024 SPA, the Company received approximately $8.0 million in funding from Lind X in exchange for a Senior Secured Convertible Promissory Note in the amount of $9.6 million (the “September 2024 Note”) and a Common Stock Purchase Warrant for the purchase of 750,000 shares of our common stock at a price of $6.50 per share, exercisable for five years (the “September 2024 Warrant”).” |
| Lind XI | partner · invested in Red Cat Holdings | “In February 2025, the Company entered into another Securities Purchase Agreement (the “February 2025 SPA”) with Lind Global Asset Management XI LLC ("Lind XI," and together with Lind X, "Lind"). Under the February 2025 SPA, the Company received approximately $15.0 million in funding from Lind XI in exchange for a Senior Convertible Promissory Note in the amount of $16.5 million (the “February 2025 Note”) and a Common Stock Purchase Warrant for the purchase of 1,000,000 shares of our common stock at a price of $15.00 per share, exercisable for five years (the “February 2025 Warrant”).” |
Only the companies Red Cat Holdings names in its 10-K filed Mar 19, 2026 (SEC). The supply chain joins the latest annual reports of the companies on it and the 8-Ks they filed since: a link shows when either side's report names the other, so it grows as more reports are read. Hover a name for the filing's own words. Customers it does not name are listed as the filing describes them.
Is it expensive?
Currently unprofitable, so P/E does not apply, so we look at price-to-sales instead: 8.4x, above the peer median of 2.8x. Revenue is up 527% from a year ago.
Above the peer median of 2.8x. The market pays more per $1 of revenue than for peers.
Show the data
| Company | Price-to-sales (P/S) |
|---|---|
| SPCX · Space Exploration Technologies Corp. | 59.3× |
| RCAT · Red Cat Holdings, Inc. | 8.4× |
| GE · GE Aerospace | 6.5× |
| RTX · RTX Corporation | 2.8× |
| LMT · Lockheed Martin Corporation | 1.8× |
| BA · The Boeing Company | 1.4× |
Red Cat Holdings, Inc. is currently unprofitable, so P/E does not apply. We use price-to-sales instead: market cap as a multiple of revenue.
What analysts expect
The average analyst price target is $15.57, 296% above the current price; 86% of 7 analysts rate it a buy; earnings missed estimates in all of the last 4 quarters.
Buy or Strong Buy: 6 analysts (86%). Sell or Strong Sell: 0.
Since May 27, 2026 the average of the analysts' latest price targets went from $20.00 to $16.20 (−19%), while RCAT went from $10.67 to $3.93 (−63%). In the past three months targets were cut once and never raised. No firm upgraded or downgraded it over the year.
Show every change
| Date | Firm | Change | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Piper Sandler | Target cut | Neutral | $6.00, was $9.00 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Needham | Target kept | Buy | $15.00 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Piper Sandler | Began coverage | Neutral | $9.00 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Began coverage | Outperform | $15.00 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Target kept | Buy | $20.00 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Needham | Target cut | Buy | $15.00, was $20.00 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Roth Capital | Began coverage | Buy | $25.00 |
| May 27, 2026 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Began coverage | Buy | $20.00 |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Needham | Target raised | Buy | $20.00, was $16.00 |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Ladenburg Thalmann | Target raised | Buy | $20.00, was $15.00 |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Needham | Target kept | Buy | $16.00 |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Needham | Target raised | Buy | $16.00, was $12.00 |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Needham | Target cut | Buy | $12.00, was $17.00 |
Show the data
| Quarter | Estimate | Reported | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep ’25 | −$0.10 | −$0.16 | −60.0% |
| Dec ’25 | −$0.15 | −$0.17 | −13.3% |
| Mar ’26 | −$0.12 | −$0.22 | −83.3% |
| Jun ’26 | −$0.17 | −$0.23 | −35.3% |
The day after each of these reports the stock moved −10.8% (Dec 2025, missed); −2.4% (Mar 2026, missed); +6.4% (Jun 2026, missed).
For the quarter ending Sep 2026 (Red Cat Holdings reports on Nov 16, 2026), analysts expect an adjusted loss of $0.18 a share, and revenue of $41M, up 322% on a year earlier. For the fiscal year ending Dec 2026, they expect revenue of $151M, up 271% on the year before.
Adjusted. Sep 2025: a loss of $0.16, far from its estimate; range −$0.18 to −$0.18; 1 analysts
Sep 2025: $9.6M; range $31M to $49M; 5 analysts
The year to Dec 2025: $41M; range $150M to $153M; 5 analysts
Show the data
| Period | Figure | Expected | Low to high | Analysts | A year earlier | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter ending Sep 2026, results Nov 16, 2026 | EPS (adjusted) | −$0.18 | −$0.18 to −$0.18 | 1 | −$0.16 (Sep 2025) | — |
| Quarter ending Sep 2026, results Nov 16, 2026 | Revenue | $41M | $31M to $49M | 5 | $9.6M (Sep 2025) | +322% |
| Quarter ending Dec 2026 | EPS (adjusted) | −$0.12 | −$0.12 to −$0.12 | 1 | −$0.17 (Dec 2025) | — |
| Quarter ending Dec 2026 | Revenue | $75M | $67M to $84M | 5 | $26M (Dec 2025) | +185% |
| Year ending Dec 2026 | Revenue | $151M | $150M to $153M | 5 | $41M (year to Dec 2025) | +271% |
| Year ending Dec 2027 | Revenue | $214M | $196M to $265M | 6 | $151M (expected, year to Dec 2026) | +42% |
Targets, ratings and earnings estimates: Yahoo Finance. Rating and target changes: Yahoo Finance's list of upgrades and downgrades. The average target on each day is the average of every listed firm's latest target set in the 180 days before it, so it counts fewer analysts than the average target above, and the band is the middle half of those targets (a quarter of the firms are above it, a quarter below); a target set before a stock split is divided by the split. Expected figures: the average of the analysts' estimates (Yahoo Finance). Their EPS is adjusted, as analysts estimate it, so it is set against the adjusted EPS Yahoo reports for the same quarters, not the GAAP EPS of the growth and valuation sections; revenue against the SEC filings. No change is given against a quarter whose reported EPS was more than 50% off its own estimate (often a one-off gain or charge), nor against a year that counts one. Each estimate is pinned to its fiscal period by the report date or the period's end, and one that cannot be is left out.
Where the cash goes
Capex of $19M exceeds operating cash flow of −$139M, leaving free cash flow of −$158M. The gap has to be covered with cash on hand or borrowing.
Show the data
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Op. cash flow | −$139M |
| Capex | −$19M |
| Free cash flow | −$158M |
| Dividends | — |
| Buybacks | — |
| Cash retained | −$158M |
Free cash flow is negative, so the company is burning cash.
No dividend today; cash goes to growth and share buybacks.
Red Cat Holdings had 137M diluted shares in the quarter ended Jun 2026, 49.9% more than a year earlier.
Show the data
| Quarter ended | Diluted shares |
|---|---|
| Mar 2024 | 74M |
| Jun 2024 | 74M |
| Sep 2024 | 76M |
| Mar 2025 | 86M |
| Jun 2025 | 91M |
| Sep 2025 | 100M |
| Mar 2026 | 121M |
| Jun 2026 | 137M |
Free cash flow: operating cash flow minus capital spending on property, plant and equipment, from SEC filings. Shares: each quarter's diluted weighted average as filed with the SEC, since the stock's listing and its latest split.
Financial health
Current ratio 15.3, no pressure to repay short-term debt; debt-to-equity 0.0, debt is very low and the balance sheet is solid.
Assets that can be turned into cash soon are 15.3x what is owed within a year. 1.5 or higher is comfortable; below 1 needs watching.
For every $1 of shareholder funds, there is $0.0 of debt (leases not counted). The higher the number, the more pressure when the economy weakens.
Cash and short-term investments of $168M against debt of $5M. Lease obligations of $14M are not counted: they are rent owed, not money borrowed. It also holds $692K of long-term investments, all of them securities it could sell.
Latest fiscal year balance sheet. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Who holds it
In the filings of 1 fund whose copy leaves RCAT out (on the exchange, not in the app yet): Swiss National Bank.
What did the funds Hunch tracks do?
Of the 83 funds whose 13F filings Hunch reads, 2 held RCAT at the end of their latest quarter (for most, Q3 2026). Over that quarter 2 added shares and 1 sold all. The largest of them is Nomura Holdings, 432,634 shares worth $4.6M at Jun 30, 2026, 3,598.4% more than a quarter earlier.
Over their latest quarter
1 of them sold all
Show every fund
| Fund | Quarter | Shares | Value | Change in shares | Change | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renaissance Technologies | Q3 2026 | 0 | — | −514,126 | Sold all | Nov 12, 2026 |
| Nomura Holdings | Q2 2026 | 432,634 | $4.6M | +420,936 | +3598% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Swiss National Bank | Q3 2026 | 277,000 | $1.8M | +12,100 | +4.6% | Nov 12, 2026 |
From the 13F filings of the 83 funds Hunch tracks, not of every institution: each fund's shares of RCAT at its latest quarter end against the quarter before, as filed (long positions only, options left out), the quarter before put on the latest quarter's share count across a split. A fund files 45 days after its quarter ends, so some have a newer quarter than others. Value is at the quarter end.
Are insiders buying or selling?
Officers and directors sold $7.9M of RCAT on the open market in the 12 months to Nov 12, 2026; none bought. 59% of the sales were made under 10b5-1 plans, set up in advance. The largest was Jeffrey M Thompson (Chairman of the Board, CEO; director), who sold $4.7M in 4 sales.
8 sales
0 purchases
Share of the sales' value
Show every trade
| Date | Insider | Role | Trade | Shares | Price | Value | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Jeffrey M Thompson | Chairman of the Board, CEO; director | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 150,000 | $4.51 | $676K | Oct 19, 2026 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Jeffrey M Thompson | Chairman of the Board, CEO; director | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 150,000 | $7.74 | $1.2M | Sep 17, 2026 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Nicholas Reyland Liuzza JR | Director | Sale | 65,000 | $8.50 | $552K | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Jeffrey M Thompson | Chairman of the Board, CEO; director | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 150,000 | $10.45 | $1.6M | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Nicholas Reyland Liuzza JR | Director | Sale | 55,000 | $10.63 | $585K | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Christopher R. Moe | Director | Sale | 20,000 | $10.51 | $210K | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Jeffrey M Thompson | Chairman of the Board, CEO; director | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 150,000 | $8.51 | $1.3M | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Paul Funk II | Director | Sale | 165,028 | $11.50 | $1.9M | Jun 15, 2026 |
From the Form 4s filed with the SEC about Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (31 in the 12 months): purchases (code P) and sales (code S) on the open market by its officers and directors, at the price each filing gives (often an average of the day's trades). A sale is a 10b5-1 sale when its filing says it was made under such a plan, set up in advance. Not counted: 21 other transactions (option exercises, shares withheld for tax, gifts and other transfers).