USA Rare Earth, Inc.

How has the stock done?

Change in closing price from the first day shown, or with Price the closing price itself. Prices: Yahoo Finance, to Nov 12, 2026. Dashed lines: the days the company released earnings (its SEC 8-K filings); EPS estimates: Yahoo Finance. The stock's move after a release runs from the last close before its day to the close the day after (or five days after), so a release before the open counts like one after the close.

Is the business growing?

Quarters: USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s SEC filings, named by the month they end. Fiscal years: USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC; FY22, FY23: Yahoo Finance.

How it makes money

The company loses $18110.7 for every $100 of revenue. Operating expenses exceed all of gross profit.

Each margin is that line of the income statement divided by revenue. Fiscal year: USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC; FY22, FY23: Yahoo Finance, operating income as filed with the SEC where its quarters cover the year.

How long can the cash last?

USA Rare Earth had $1.5B in cash and short-term investments at the end of Jun 2026. It burned $246M over the last four quarters (operating cash flow minus capital spending), so at that pace the cash lasts about 25 quarters.

From USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s SEC filings: cash and cash equivalents plus short-term investments (none where none is filed) at each quarter end; free cash flow is operating cash flow minus capital spending; shares are each quarter's diluted weighted average as filed, since the stock's listing and its latest split (a 10-K gives no fourth-quarter figure). Shown while the last four quarters' operating cash flow and net income are both negative.

Customers and suppliers

In its latest annual report USA Rare Earth buys from Fluor, WSP Global, OTB and 1 more; sells to Permag, Arnold Magnetic Technologies; two customers it does not name account for 73% and 18% of its revenue. Since then its 8-K filings name TC Liberty Development as a supplier (Jun 2, 2026).

Their suppliers

NuScale Power SMRto Fluor

Show 1

Suppliers

Unnamed supplier 81%

Fluor FLR

O

OTB

T

TC Liberty Development

WSP Global

 

USARUSA Rare Earth

Customers

Unnamed customer 73%

Unnamed customer 18%

Arnold Magnetic Technologies

P

Permag

USA Rare Earth's 10-Q for the quarter to Jun 2026 gives four customers' shares of its revenue: Customer Two (29%), Customer One (26%), Customer Three (23%) and Customer Four (18%). Separately, it gives a group of customers: All Other Customers (3%).

From USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s 10-Q and 10-K filings (XBRL): each customer whose share of revenue a filing tags, under the filing's own label, so “Customer A” in one filing can be another company in the next; a later filing's figures for a period replace an earlier one's. A dash is a group of customers the filing gives (a government's agencies, the largest customers together, all the others): it can include the customers beside it, so the shares need not add up. Rings are fiscal years: a 10-K gives the year, not its fourth quarter.

Changes since the previous annual report (10-K filed Mar 31, 2025)

Fluor FLRNamed for the first time, as a supplier

OOTBNamed for the first time, as a supplier25,000 shares of Common Stock issued April 15, 2025

WWSP GlobalNamed for the first time, as a supplier

AArnold Magnetic TechnologiesNamed for the first time, as a customer

PPermagNamed for the first time, as a customer

CCollective Capital ManagementNamed for the first time, as a partner

HHatchNamed for the first time, as a partner0.14 million shares of Common Stock upon Merger closing

IIP Freedom FundNamed for the first time, as a partner13,955,000 shares of Common Stock for $300,032,500

SSolvayNamed for the first time, as a partner

AAlto Opportunity Master FundNo longer named (was a partner)

HHarraden Circle InvestorsNo longer named (was a partner)

HHarraden Circle Special OpportunitiesNo longer named (was a partner)

LL1No longer named (was a partner)

NNewtyn PartnersNo longer named (was a partner)

NNewtyn TE PartnersNo longer named (was a partner)

Only the companies USA Rare Earth names in its 10-K filed Mar 30, 2026 (SEC) and in the 8-Ks it filed since, each with its date. The supply chain joins the latest annual reports of the companies on it and the 8-Ks they filed since: a link shows when either side's report names the other, so it grows as more reports are read. Hover a name for the filing's own words. Customers it does not name are listed as the filing describes them.

Is it expensive?

A P/E is not available, so we look at price-to-sales instead: 187x, above the peer median of 7.4x.

Above the peer median of 7.4x. The market pays more per $1 of revenue than for peers.

USA Rare Earth, Inc. has very small earnings, so P/E would be misleading. We use price-to-sales instead: market cap as a multiple of revenue.

What analysts expect

The average analyst price target is $35.13, 335% above the current price; 100% of 9 analysts rate it a buy; earnings beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 quarters.

Buy or Strong Buy: 9 analysts (100%). Sell or Strong Sell: 0.

Over the past year the average of the analysts' latest price targets went from $18.00 to $28.50 (+58%), while USAR went from $14.85 to $8.07 (−46%). In the past three months targets were cut once and never raised. No firm upgraded or downgraded it over the year.

The day after each of these reports the stock moved −1.8% (Dec 2025, missed); −2.8% (Mar 2026, beat); −2.2% (Jun 2026, missed).

For the quarter ending Dec 2026, analysts expect an adjusted loss of $0.10 a share, against a loss of $0.19 a year earlier, and revenue of $45M. For the fiscal year ending Dec 2027, they expect revenue of $713M, up 933% on the year before's estimate.

Targets, ratings and earnings estimates: Yahoo Finance. Rating and target changes: Yahoo Finance's list of upgrades and downgrades. The average target on each day is the average of every listed firm's latest target set in the 180 days before it, so it counts fewer analysts than the average target above, and the band is the middle half of those targets (a quarter of the firms are above it, a quarter below); a target set before a stock split is divided by the split. Expected figures: the average of the analysts' estimates (Yahoo Finance). Their EPS is adjusted, as analysts estimate it, so it is set against the adjusted EPS Yahoo reports for the same quarters, not the GAAP EPS of the growth and valuation sections; revenue against the SEC filings. No change is given against a quarter whose reported EPS was more than 50% off its own estimate (often a one-off gain or charge), nor against a year that counts one. Each estimate is pinned to its fiscal period by the report date or the period's end, and one that cannot be is left out.

Where the cash goes

Capex of $140M exceeds operating cash flow of −$106M, leaving free cash flow of −$246M. The gap has to be covered with cash on hand or borrowing.

Free cash flow: operating cash flow minus capital spending on property, plant and equipment, from SEC filings.

Financial health

Current ratio 10.2, no pressure to repay short-term debt; debt-to-equity 0.0, debt is very low and the balance sheet is solid.

Latest fiscal year balance sheet. Source: Yahoo Finance.

What did the funds Hunch tracks do?

Of the 83 funds whose 13F filings Hunch reads, 6 held USAR at the end of their latest quarter (for most, Q2 2026). Over that quarter 4 added shares, 1 cut, 1 sold all and 1 held the same. The largest of them is Renaissance Technologies, 2.98M shares worth $42.0M at Sep 30, 2026, 24.6% fewer than a quarter earlier.

From the 13F filings of the 83 funds Hunch tracks, not of every institution: each fund's shares of USAR at its latest quarter end against the quarter before, as filed (long positions only, options left out), the quarter before put on the latest quarter's share count across a split. A fund files 45 days after its quarter ends, so some have a newer quarter than others. Value is at the quarter end.