Ballard Power Systems Inc.
- Growing?
- Yes: revenue went from $82M in FY22 to $99M in FY25.
- Expensive?
- Price-to-sales (P/S) 4.6×. Above the peer median of 3.5x. The market pays more per $1 of revenue than for peers.
- Analysts?
- 27% of 11 say buy; average 12-month target $3.38, 142% above today's price.
- Risky?
- Much swingier than most large companies: its price swung 75% over the past year (the S&P 500's 14%), and it fell as much as 95% since Nov 2021.
Ballard Power Systems Inc. designs and manufactures proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell products—sold as fuel cell engines/modules, stacks, and MEAs—and also provides technology solutions, after-sales service, and training, with revenue primarily from product sales plus service revenue across applications including heavy-duty mobility and stationary power.
More about Ballard Power Systems
Market Position
Ballard is a long-established, pure-play PEM fuel cell supplier focused on heavy-duty, zero-emission use cases (e.g., buses, trucks, rail, marine), differentiating through integrated engine/module offerings and OEM/integrator partnerships, while reporting results in a single operating segment, Fuel Cell Products and Services.
Key Segments
Externally, Ballard groups revenue by end-market within its single segment: Heavy-Duty Mobility (bus, truck, rail, marine), Stationary Power, and Emerging and Other Markets (e.g., material handling, off-road and other), with related services embedded in each market category.
How has the stock done?
Over the past month BLDP fell 23.5%; the industrials ETF (XLI) rose 0.2% and the S&P 500 fell 2.7%.
Over the past six months BLDP fell 66.3%; the industrials ETF (XLI) fell 2.8% and the S&P 500 rose 2.6%.
Over the past year BLDP fell 59.2%; the industrials ETF (XLI) rose 9.7% and the S&P 500 rose 10.8%.
Over five years BLDP fell 92.3%; the industrials ETF (XLI) rose 58.5% and the S&P 500 rose 62.0%.
From Nov 8, 2021 to Apr 8, 2025, the deepest drop from a high since Nov 2021
How much the price swings in a year; the S&P 500's was 14%
When the S&P 500 moves 1%, the stock has moved about 2.6% the same way
Change in closing price from the first day shown, or with Price the closing price itself. Prices: Yahoo Finance, to Nov 12, 2026.
Is the business growing?
Revenue went from $82M in FY22 to $99M in FY25; net income from −$173M to −$91M.
Show the data
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income |
|---|---|---|
| FY22 | $82M | −$173M |
| FY23 | $102M | −$178M |
| FY24 | $70M | −$324M |
| FY25 | $99M | −$91M |
Fiscal years: Yahoo Finance.
How it makes money
The company loses $91.5 for every $100 of revenue. Operating expenses exceed all of gross profit.
+21.8 pts over 3 years
+93.2 pts over 3 years
+120.4 pts over 3 years
Each margin is that line of the income statement divided by revenue. Fiscal year: Yahoo Finance, operating income as filed with the SEC where its quarters cover the year.
Customers and suppliers
In its latest annual report Ballard Power Systems buys from Volkswagen; sells to New Flyer, Weichai Ballard JV, eCap Marine and 4 more; three customers it does not name account for 10% and 10% and 10% of its revenue.
Suppliers
BLDPBallard Power SystemsCustomers
Partners
Mercedes-BenzCo-owns intellectual property holding company33% of BDF IP Holdings voting, non-participating shares
Ford FCo-owns intellectual property holding company33% of BDF IP Holdings voting, non-participating sharesVolkswagen VOW3.DELicenses patents for bus and non-automotive applicationsRoyalty-free license to approximately 803 issued patents and pending applicationsDaimler MBGAFProvides royalty-free access to fuel cell intellectual propertyChanges since the previous annual report (40-F filed Mar 13, 2025)
VolkswagenNow also a partnerShow the filing's words
| Company | Role | In the filing's words |
|---|---|---|
| Weichai Ballard JV | partner · joint venture with it | “Weichai Ballard JV is an associate in which the Corporation has significant influence and a 49% ownership interest. At December 31, 2025, as specified in the Equity Joint Venture Agreement, the Corporation has fulfilled its capital contribution commitments to Weichai Ballard JV.” |
| Forsee Power | partner · Ballard Power Systems invested in it | “During the year ended December 31, 2025, changes in fair value and foreign exchange adjustments totalling ($559,000) (2024 - ($12,699,000)) were recognized as an unrealized loss in the consolidated statements of loss and comprehensive income (loss) and included in finance income and other (notes 24 and 31), resulting in net fair value investment in Forsee Power of $1,711,000 as of December 31, 2025 (2024 - $2,270,000), now representing a non-controlling 4.5% equity interest.” |
| Wisdom | partner · Ballard Power Systems invested in it | “In June 2022, the Corporation invested $10,000,000 and acquired a non-controlling 7.2% interest in Wisdom Group Holdings Ltd. ("Wisdom Motor"), a privately held Cayman Islands holding company with operating subsidiaries whose business includes the design and manufacture of vehicles, including zero emission fuel cell electric buses, trucks, and battery-electric vehicles....The exercise of this option by the acquiring counterparties, diluted the Corporation's ownership interest from 7.2% to 6.7% as of December 31, 2025.” |
| HyCap | partner · Ballard Power Systems invested in it | “In August 2021, the Corporation invested in HyCap Fund I SCSp (“HyCap”), a special limited partnership registered in Luxembourg. During the year ended December 31, 2025, the Corporation made additional contributions of £4,541,000 ($6,130,000) (2024 - £4,768,000 ($6,102,000)) for total contributions of £20,296,000 ($26,444,000), representing a 10.4% equity interest.” |
| Clean H2 | partner · Ballard Power Systems invested in it | “In December 2021, the Corporation invested in Clean H2 Infrastructure Fund I ("Clean H2"), a special limited partnership registered in France. During the year ended December 31, 2025, the Corporation made additional contributions of €2,127,000 ($2,460,000) (2024 - €4,962,000 ($5,328,000)) for total contributions of €11,790,000 ($12,935,000), representing a 1.5% equity interest.” |
| Templewater | partner · Ballard Power Systems invested in it | “In February 2024, the Corporation invested in Templewater Decarbonization I, L.P ("Templewater"), a special limited partnership registered in Cayman Islands. During the year ended December 31, 2025, the Corporation made additional contributions of $158,000 (2024 - $527,000) for total contributions of $685,000, representing a 1.8% equity interest, on a total commitment of $1,000,000, remainder yet to be paid.” |
| Largest customer (unnamed) | customer | “In 2025, revenues included sales to three individual customers of $18,239,000, $16,919,000 and $16,244,000 respectively, which exceeded 10% of total revenue.” |
| Second largest customer (unnamed) | customer | “In 2025, revenues included sales to three individual customers of $18,239,000, $16,919,000 and $16,244,000 respectively, which exceeded 10% of total revenue.” |
| Third largest customer (unnamed) | customer | “In 2025, revenues included sales to three individual customers of $18,239,000, $16,919,000 and $16,244,000 respectively, which exceeded 10% of total revenue.” |
| New Flyer | customer | “On March 10, 2026, we announced reaching a commercial agreement with New Flyer, a subsidiary of NFI Group Inc., a leading provider of diverse and sustainable mobility solutions in North America and Europe. The agreement for 500 FCmove®-HD+ fuel cell engines, totaling 50 MW, represents the largest single commitment from New Flyer since the partnership began.” |
| Weichai | partner · joint venture with it | “The Weichai-Ballard JV is 51% owned by Weichai. As of March 9, 2026, Weichai is estimated to beneficially own approximately 15.3% of Ballard’s common shares through its wholly owned subsidiary, Weichai Power Hong Kong International Development Co., Limited (“Weichai HK”).” |
| Weichai Ballard JV | customer | “•Fuel Cell Sales – In 2019, we announced the receipt of a purchase order from Weichai Ballard JV for the delivery of MEAs valued at approximately $19 million under a long-term MEA supply agreement. Revenue earned from this agreement ($1.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2025; $1.5 million in fiscal 2025; $nil million in the fourth quarter of 2024; $0.1 million in fiscal 2024) is recorded as product revenue in our Heavy-Duty Mobility Truck market.” |
| Mercedes-Benz | partner · joint venture with it | “1. Ballard holds 100% of the non-voting, participating shares of BDF IP Holdings Ltd. and 34% of the voting, non-participating shares, along with each of Mercedes-Benz AG (33%) and Ford Motor Company (33%).” |
| Ford | partner · joint venture with it | “1. Ballard holds 100% of the non-voting, participating shares of BDF IP Holdings Ltd. and 34% of the voting, non-participating shares, along with each of Mercedes-Benz AG (33%) and Ford Motor Company (33%).” |
| eCap Marine | customer | “On July 22, 2025, we announced an order to supply 6.4 MW of FCwaveTM fuel cell engines to eCap Marine GmbH for deployment on two Samskip vessels operating between Norway and the Netherlands.” |
| NFI | customer | “On January 3, 2024, we announced the signing of a new long-term supply agreement with NFI, a leading independent bus and coach manufacturer and a leader in electric mass mobility solutions in North America and Europe.” |
| Solaris | customer | “On April 1, 2024, we announced the signing of a long-term supply agreement with Solaris Bus & Coach sp. z o.o. for the supply of 1,000 hydrogen fuel cell engines through 2027 for the European transit bus market.” |
| Stadler US | customer | “On December 9, 2024, we announced the signing of a multi-year supply agreement with Stadler US Inc. to supply approximately 8 MW of FCmove®-HD+ fuel cell engines to power trains for the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans).” |
| CPKC | customer | “On December 5, 2024, we announced the signing of a new long-term supply agreement with CPKC, including the initial supply of 98 fuel cell engines for use in the North American freight rail market. Of the 98 engines, 65 were delivered in 2025, and the remaining 33 engines have been or are expected to be delivered in 2026.” |
| Volkswagen | supplier | “Pursuant to the License Agreement AUDI grants to Ballard for use in all applications a non-exclusive, royalty-bearing license to the intellectual property developed for AUDI pursuant to TDA-3, the prior Technology Development Agreement dated as of March 1, 2013 entered into between Ballard and Volkswagen AG, as amended and assigned to AUDI, and the Transfer and License Agreement dated February 11, 2015 between Ballard and AUDI.” |
| Volkswagen | partner · licensing deal with it | “We have a royalty-free license to approximately 803 issued patents and pending patent applications from AUDI for bus and non-automotive applications and a royalty-bearing license for all other applications.” |
| NuCellSys | partner · licensing deal with it | “In addition, these licenses include non-exclusive, royalty-free access to all of the intellectual property rights held by NuCellSys GmbH, a Daimler subsidiary, and to all of the intellectual property rights relating to fuel cells developed by Daimler, Ford and their subsidiaries (either directly or through AFCC), including any intellectual property rights developed by them to January 31, 2013.” |
| Daimler | partner · licensing deal with it | “In addition, these licenses include non-exclusive, royalty-free access to all of the intellectual property rights held by NuCellSys GmbH, a Daimler subsidiary, and to all of the intellectual property rights relating to fuel cells developed by Daimler, Ford and their subsidiaries (either directly or through AFCC), including any intellectual property rights developed by them to January 31, 2013.” |
| Weichai HK | partner · invested in Ballard Power Systems | “As of March 9, 2026, Weichai is estimated to beneficially own approximately 15.3% of Ballard’s common shares through its wholly owned subsidiary, Weichai Power Hong Kong International Development Co., Limited (“Weichai HK”).” |
Only the companies Ballard Power Systems names in its 40-F filed Mar 12, 2026 (SEC). The supply chain joins the latest annual reports of the companies on it and the 8-Ks they filed since: a link shows when either side's report names the other, so it grows as more reports are read. Hover a name for the filing's own words. Customers it does not name are listed as the filing describes them.
Is it expensive?
Currently unprofitable, so P/E does not apply, so we look at price-to-sales instead: 4.6x, above the peer median of 3.5x. Revenue is up 15% from a year ago.
Above the peer median of 3.5x. The market pays more per $1 of revenue than for peers.
Show the data
| Company | Price-to-sales (P/S) |
|---|---|
| BE · Bloom Energy Corporation | 15.6× |
| VRT · Vertiv Holdings Co | 6.2× |
| BLDP · Ballard Power Systems Inc. | 4.6× |
| NVT · nVent Electric plc | 3.5× |
| HUBB · Hubbell Incorporated | 3.5× |
| AYI · Acuity Inc. | 2.1× |
Ballard Power Systems Inc. is currently unprofitable, so P/E does not apply. We use price-to-sales instead: market cap as a multiple of revenue.
What analysts expect
The average analyst price target is $3.38, 142% above the current price; 27% of 11 analysts rate it a buy; earnings beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters.
Buy or Strong Buy: 3 analysts (27%). Sell or Strong Sell: 1.
Over the past year the average of the analysts' latest price targets went from $2.24 to $1.88 (−16%), while BLDP went from $3.19 to $1.40 (−56%). In the past three months targets were cut 3 times and never raised. 1 upgrade and no downgrades over the year; the latest: Lake Street moved it to Buy from Hold on May 5, 2026.
Show every change
| Date | Firm | Change | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2026 | BMO Capital | Target cut | Underperform | $1.50, was $2.10 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Susquehanna | Target cut | Neutral | $2.00, was $3.00 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | UBS | Target cut | Neutral | $2.15, was $6.50 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Susquehanna | Target cut | Neutral | $3.00, was $3.50 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | Susquehanna | Target cut | Neutral | $3.50, was $4.25 |
| May 20, 2026 | Susquehanna | Target raised | Neutral | $4.25, was $2.60 |
| May 6, 2026 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Hold | $4.25, was $2.50 |
| May 5, 2026 | Lake Street | Upgrade | Buy, was Hold | $5.00, was $3.00 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Underweight | $2.00, was $1.50 |
Show the data
| Quarter | Estimate | Reported | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep ’25 | −$0.10 | −$0.09 | +10.0% |
| Dec ’25 | −$0.08 | −$0.04 | +50.0% |
| Mar ’26 | −$0.06 | −$0.04 | +33.3% |
| Jun ’26 | −$0.04 | −$0.04 | 0.0% |
For the quarter ending Sep 2026 (Ballard Power Systems reports on Nov 16, 2026), analysts expect an adjusted loss of $0.04 a share, against a loss of $0.09 a year earlier, and revenue of $32M. For the fiscal year ending Dec 2026, they expect revenue of $114M.
Adjusted. Sep 2025: a loss of $0.09; range −$0.06 to −$0.02; 4 analysts
Range $25M to $37M; 6 analysts
Range $108M to $121M; 8 analysts
Show the data
| Period | Figure | Expected | Low to high | Analysts | A year earlier | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter ending Sep 2026, results Nov 16, 2026 | EPS (adjusted) | −$0.04 | −$0.06 to −$0.02 | 4 | −$0.09 (Sep 2025) | — |
| Quarter ending Sep 2026, results Nov 16, 2026 | Revenue | $32M | $25M to $37M | 6 | — | — |
| Quarter ending Dec 2026 | EPS (adjusted) | −$0.03 | −$0.05 to −$0.02 | 4 | −$0.04 (Dec 2025) | — |
| Quarter ending Dec 2026 | Revenue | $42M | $33M to $48M | 6 | — | — |
| Year ending Dec 2026 | Revenue | $114M | $108M to $121M | 8 | — | — |
| Year ending Dec 2027 | Revenue | $151M | $140M to $161M | 6 | $114M (expected, year to Dec 2026) | +32% |
Targets, ratings and earnings estimates: Yahoo Finance. Rating and target changes: Yahoo Finance's list of upgrades and downgrades. The average target on each day is the average of every listed firm's latest target set in the 180 days before it, so it counts fewer analysts than the average target above, and the band is the middle half of those targets (a quarter of the firms are above it, a quarter below); a target set before a stock split is divided by the split. Expected figures: the average of the analysts' estimates (Yahoo Finance). Their EPS is adjusted, as analysts estimate it, so it is set against the adjusted EPS Yahoo reports for the same quarters, not the GAAP EPS of the growth and valuation sections; revenue against the SEC filings. No change is given against a quarter whose reported EPS was more than 50% off its own estimate (often a one-off gain or charge), nor against a year that counts one. Each estimate is pinned to its fiscal period by the report date or the period's end, and one that cannot be is left out.
Where the cash goes
Capex of $6M exceeds operating cash flow of −$31M, leaving free cash flow of −$37M. The gap has to be covered with cash on hand or borrowing.
Show the data
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Op. cash flow | −$31M |
| Capex | −$6M |
| Free cash flow | −$37M |
| Dividends | — |
| Buybacks | — |
| Cash retained | −$37M |
Free cash flow is negative, so the company is burning cash.
No dividend today; cash goes to growth and share buybacks.
Free cash flow: operating cash flow minus capital spending. Last 4 quarters: Yahoo Finance, buybacks from SEC filings where they have the quarter.
Financial health
Current ratio 9.9, no pressure to repay short-term debt; debt-to-equity 0.0, debt is very low and the balance sheet is solid.
Assets that can be turned into cash soon are 9.9x what is owed within a year. 1.5 or higher is comfortable; below 1 needs watching.
For every $1 of shareholder funds, there is $0.0 of debt (leases not counted). The higher the number, the more pressure when the economy weakens.
Cash and short-term investments of $531M and no debt. Lease obligations of $22M are not counted: they are rent owed, not money borrowed. It also holds $48M of long-term investments, which can be stakes in other companies rather than cash.
Latest fiscal year balance sheet. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Who holds it
In the filings of 1 fund whose copy leaves BLDP out (not traded on the exchange): Swiss National Bank.
What did the funds Hunch tracks do?
Of the 83 funds whose 13F filings Hunch reads, 3 held BLDP at the end of their latest quarter (for most, Q3 2026). Over that quarter 1 added shares, 1 cut and 1 bought new. The largest of them is Renaissance Technologies, 1.67M shares worth $3.4M at Sep 30, 2026, 61.4% fewer than a quarter earlier.
1 of them new holders
Over their latest quarter
Show every fund
| Fund | Quarter | Shares | Value | Change in shares | Change | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renaissance Technologies | Q3 2026 | 1.67M | $3.4M | −2.67M | −61% | Nov 12, 2026 |
| Swiss National Bank | Q3 2026 | 538,100 | $1.1M | +22,200 | +4.3% | Nov 12, 2026 |
| Tudor Investment Corp Et Al | Q2 2026 | 36,639 | $143K | +36,639 | New | Aug 14, 2026 |
From the 13F filings of the 83 funds Hunch tracks, not of every institution: each fund's shares of BLDP at its latest quarter end against the quarter before, as filed (long positions only, options left out), the quarter before put on the latest quarter's share count across a split. A fund files 45 days after its quarter ends, so some have a newer quarter than others. Value is at the quarter end.