NVR, Inc.

How has the stock done?

Change in closing price from the first day shown, or with Price the closing price itself. Prices: Yahoo Finance, to Nov 12, 2026. Dashed lines: the days the company released earnings (its SEC 8-K filings); EPS estimates: Yahoo Finance. The stock's move after a release runs from the last close before its day to the close the day after (or five days after), so a release before the open counts like one after the close.

Is the business growing?

In the fiscal year to Dec 2025, Home Building was 98% and Mortgage Banking was 2% of revenue.

Quarters: NVR, Inc.'s SEC filings, named by the month they end. Fiscal years: NVR, Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC.

How it makes money

Of every $100 in revenue, $13.0 ends up as net income. Net margin fell from 16.4% to 13.0% over the past 3 years.

Each margin is that line of the income statement divided by revenue. Fiscal year: NVR, Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC.

Is it expensive?

P/E of 16x, above the peer median of 13.7x, and earnings are expected to fall, so use caution.

Priced 17% above the peer median of 13.7x.

At 16.0× trailing earnings NVR is inside the middle of its five-year range; the five-year median is 15.2×.

Closing price over diluted earnings per share of the last four reported quarters, as known on each day (a quarter counts 35 days after it ends). From SEC filings; earnings per share adjusted for splits.

What analysts expect

The average analyst price target is $6,230, 7% above the current price; 14% of 7 analysts rate it a buy; earnings beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 quarters.

Buy or Strong Buy: 1 analysts (14%). Sell or Strong Sell: 3.

Over the past year the average of the analysts' latest price targets went from $8,366.67 to $6,472.25 (−23%), while NVR went from $7,255.57 to $5,814.34 (−20%). In the past three months targets were raised once and cut once. 2 upgrades and 1 downgrade over the year; the latest: Zelman & Assoc moved it to Buy from Hold on Jul 7, 2026.

The day after each of these reports the stock moved +1.7% (Dec 2025, beat); −3.8% (Mar 2026, missed); +1.0% (Jun 2026, missed); +1.4% (Sep 2026, missed).

For the quarter ending Dec 2026 (NVR reports on Jan 27, 2027), analysts expect adjusted earnings of $96.40 a share, 21% less than the $121.54 of a year earlier, and revenue of $2.4B, down 13% on a year earlier. For the fiscal year ending Dec 2027, they expect adjusted earnings of $346.37 a share, 3% more than the year before's estimate of $336.51.

Targets, ratings and earnings estimates: Yahoo Finance. Rating and target changes: Yahoo Finance's list of upgrades and downgrades. The average target on each day is the average of every listed firm's latest target set in the 180 days before it, so it counts fewer analysts than the average target above, and the band is the middle half of those targets (a quarter of the firms are above it, a quarter below); a target set before a stock split is divided by the split. Expected figures: the average of the analysts' estimates (Yahoo Finance). Their EPS is adjusted, as analysts estimate it, so it is set against the adjusted EPS Yahoo reports for the same quarters, not the GAAP EPS of the growth and valuation sections; revenue against the SEC filings. No change is given against a quarter whose reported EPS was more than 50% off its own estimate (often a one-off gain or charge), nor against a year that counts one. Each estimate is pinned to its fiscal period by the report date or the period's end, and one that cannot be is left out.

Where the cash goes

Generated $820M in free cash flow over the year and returned more than it generated: $1.7B went back to shareholders (dividends plus buybacks), so $920M came from cash on hand or borrowing.

NVR had 3M diluted shares in the quarter ended Sep 2026, 8.9% fewer than a year earlier, and 5.1% fewer each year on average since Jun 2020. It spent $1.7B on buybacks over the last four quarters. Over the last four quarters its earnings per share fell 20.3% and its net income fell 26.9%: fewer shares added about 7 points.

Free cash flow: operating cash flow minus capital spending on property, plant and equipment, from SEC filings, for the last 4 quarters and by quarter. Shares: each quarter's diluted weighted average as filed with the SEC, since the stock's listing and its latest split.

Financial health

Current ratio 5.5, no pressure to repay short-term debt; debt-to-equity 0.2, debt is very low and the balance sheet is solid.

Latest fiscal year balance sheet. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Who holds it

In the filings of 6 funds whose copy leaves NVR out (not traded on the exchange): Norges Bank, Berkshire Hathaway, Swiss National Bank, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Bridgewater Associates, Mirae Asset Global Investments.

What did the funds Hunch tracks do?

Of the 83 funds whose 13F filings Hunch reads, 14 held NVR at the end of their latest quarter (for most, Q3 2026). Over that quarter 4 added shares, 6 cut, 3 bought new, 1 sold all and 1 held the same. The largest of them is First Eagle Investment Management, 65,009 shares worth $400M at Sep 30, 2026.

From the 13F filings of the 83 funds Hunch tracks, not of every institution: each fund's shares of NVR at its latest quarter end against the quarter before, as filed (long positions only, options left out), the quarter before put on the latest quarter's share count across a split. A fund files 45 days after its quarter ends, so some have a newer quarter than others. Value is at the quarter end. Norges Bank filed its 13F for Q1 2026 confidentially, with no holdings made public, so its row compares Q2 2026 with Q4 2025.

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