Redwire Corporation

How has the stock done?

Change in closing price from the first day shown, or with Price the closing price itself. Prices: Yahoo Finance, to Nov 12, 2026. Dashed lines: the days the company released earnings (its SEC 8-K filings); EPS estimates: Yahoo Finance. The stock's move after a release runs from the last close before its day to the close the day after (or five days after), so a release before the open counts like one after the close.

Is the business growing?

In the fiscal year to Dec 2025, Space was 63% and Defense Tech was 37% of revenue; Space fell from 80% in the fiscal year to Dec 2023.

In the fiscal year to Dec 2025, United States was 58% and Europe was 37% of revenue; United States fell from 71% in the fiscal year to Dec 2023.

Quarters: Redwire Corporation's SEC filings, named by the month they end. Fiscal years: Redwire Corporation's annual reports to the SEC.

How it makes money

The company loses $67.6 for every $100 of revenue. Operating expenses exceed all of gross profit.

Circled: Dec 2024 (net −96.6%, operating −27.3%), Mar 2025 (net −4.8%, operating −23.3%). Net margin is usually about 5 points below operating margin; in those quarters something below operating income (a tax charge or benefit, a gain or loss on investments, a write-down) moved it, not the business itself.

Each margin is that line of the income statement divided by revenue. Fiscal year: Redwire Corporation's annual reports to the SEC; quarters: SEC filings.

How long can the cash last?

Redwire had $488M in cash and short-term investments at the end of Sep 2026. It burned $137M over the last four quarters (operating cash flow minus capital spending), so at that pace the cash lasts about 14 quarters. It raised $747M selling new shares over the same four quarters. Its diluted share count is up 276% from two years earlier.

From Redwire Corporation's SEC filings: cash and cash equivalents plus short-term investments (none where none is filed) at each quarter end; free cash flow is operating cash flow minus capital spending; shares are each quarter's diluted weighted average as filed, since the stock's listing and its latest split (a 10-K gives no fourth-quarter figure). Shown while the last four quarters' operating cash flow and net income are both negative.

How much work is already signed?

Customers had signed $502M of work Redwire has not yet delivered at the end of Sep 2026: 1.2 years of revenue at the last four quarters' pace. New orders over those four quarters were about 1.6× revenue, so the backlog grew.

Backlog: remaining performance obligations in Redwire Corporation's SEC filings, revenue under contract not yet delivered. Book-to-bill: the quarter's revenue plus the change in backlog, over the quarter's revenue.

Customers and suppliers

 

RDWRedwire

Customers

Firefly Aerospace FLY

Their customers

L3Harris Technologies LHXfrom Firefly Aerospace

Lockheed Martin LMTfrom Firefly Aerospace

Northrop Grumman NOCfrom Firefly Aerospace

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Partners

AAEI Fund IIinvested in Redwire · Holds Redwire convertible preferred stock

AAEI Structured Solutionsinvested in Redwire · Holds Redwire convertible preferred stock

GGenesis Park Holdingsinvested in Redwire · Holds Redwire securities with investor rights

UUltimate Holdingsinvested in Redwire · Received Redwire shares as acquisition consideration49,764,847 common shares issued June 13, 2025

BMS BMYIn-space pharmaceutical crystal growth using PIL-BOX

Eli Lilly LLYIn-space pharmaceutical crystal growth using PIL-BOX

EExesaLibero PharmaPharmaceutical licensing with royalties payable to Redwire

Changes since the previous annual report (10-K filed Mar 11, 2025)

BMS BMYNamed for the first time, as a partner

Eli Lilly LLYNamed for the first time, as a partner

EExesaLibero PharmaNamed for the first time, as a partner

Only the companies Redwire names in its 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026 (SEC). The supply chain joins the latest annual reports of the companies on it and the 8-Ks they filed since: a link shows when either side's report names the other, so it grows as more reports are read. Hover a name for the filing's own words.

Is it expensive?

Currently unprofitable, so P/E does not apply, so we look at price-to-sales instead: 4.7x, above the peer median of 2.8x. Revenue is up 5% from a year ago.

Above the peer median of 2.8x. The market pays more per $1 of revenue than for peers.

Redwire Corporation is currently unprofitable, so P/E does not apply. We use price-to-sales instead: market cap as a multiple of revenue.

What analysts expect

The average analyst price target is $12.72, 58% above the current price; 55% of 11 analysts rate it a buy; earnings beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters.

Buy or Strong Buy: 6 analysts (55%). Sell or Strong Sell: 1.

Over the past year the average of the analysts' latest price targets went from $15.00 to $13.42 (−11%), while RDW went from $5.56 to $8.03 (+44%). In the past three months targets were raised once and cut 3 times. 1 upgrade and 1 downgrade over the year; the latest: Jefferies moved it to Hold from Buy on Jun 1, 2026.

The day after each of these reports the stock moved +13.4% (Dec 2025, missed); +5.9% (Mar 2026, beat); +11.3% (Jun 2026, beat); −23.8% (Sep 2026, beat).

For the quarter ending Dec 2026, analysts expect an adjusted loss of $0.08 a share, against a loss of $0.22 a year earlier, and revenue of $138M, up 27% on a year earlier. For the fiscal year ending Dec 2027, they expect revenue of $559M, up 20% on the year before's estimate.

Targets, ratings and earnings estimates: Yahoo Finance. Rating and target changes: Yahoo Finance's list of upgrades and downgrades. The average target on each day is the average of every listed firm's latest target set in the 180 days before it, so it counts fewer analysts than the average target above, and the band is the middle half of those targets (a quarter of the firms are above it, a quarter below); a target set before a stock split is divided by the split. Expected figures: the average of the analysts' estimates (Yahoo Finance). Their EPS is adjusted, as analysts estimate it, so it is set against the adjusted EPS Yahoo reports for the same quarters, not the GAAP EPS of the growth and valuation sections; revenue against the SEC filings. No change is given against a quarter whose reported EPS was more than 50% off its own estimate (often a one-off gain or charge), nor against a year that counts one. Each estimate is pinned to its fiscal period by the report date or the period's end, and one that cannot be is left out.

Where the cash goes

Capex of $18M exceeds operating cash flow of −$119M, leaving free cash flow of −$137M. The gap has to be covered with cash on hand or borrowing.

Free cash flow: operating cash flow minus capital spending on property, plant and equipment, from SEC filings.

Financial health

Current ratio 1.6, no pressure to repay short-term debt; debt-to-equity 0.1, debt is very low and the balance sheet is solid.

Latest fiscal year balance sheet. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Who holds it

In the filings of 3 funds whose copy leaves RDW out (on the exchange, not in the app yet): Mirae Asset Global Investments, Swiss National Bank, Norges Bank.

What did the funds Hunch tracks do?

Of the 83 funds whose 13F filings Hunch reads, 6 held RDW at the end of their latest quarter (for most, Q3 2026). Over that quarter 2 added shares, 2 cut and 2 bought new. The largest of them is Mirae Asset Global Investments, 12.13M shares worth $127M at Sep 30, 2026, 2.3% more than a quarter earlier.

From the 13F filings of the 83 funds Hunch tracks, not of every institution: each fund's shares of RDW at its latest quarter end against the quarter before, as filed (long positions only, options left out), the quarter before put on the latest quarter's share count across a split. A fund files 45 days after its quarter ends, so some have a newer quarter than others. Value is at the quarter end. Norges Bank filed its 13F for Q1 2026 confidentially, with no holdings made public, so its row compares Q2 2026 with Q4 2025.

Are insiders buying or selling?

Officers and directors bought $180K and sold $1.1B of RDW on the open market in the 12 months to Nov 12, 2026. The largest was AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC (Director), who sold $1.1B in 38 sales.

From the Form 4s filed with the SEC about Redwire Corporation (46 in the 12 months): purchases (code P) and sales (code S) on the open market by its officers and directors, at the price each filing gives (often an average of the day's trades). A sale is a 10b5-1 sale when its filing says it was made under such a plan, set up in advance. Not counted: 29 other transactions (grants, option exercises, shares withheld for tax, shares sold to pay tax and other transfers).