US pump prices now read 4 dollars a gallon. Trump had promised gas below 2 dollars a gallon. Of the promises data can score, none hold up. Trump Media's shares came in at -10.9% against the market in the same window as the article.
The promise was 2 dollars. The pump says 4.
Two years ago Donald Trump promised voters gas below 2 dollars a gallon. The newest weekly reading for the average US pump price is 4 dollars a gallon. Stretch the measure across the whole stretch since January 2025 and it still comes out at 3 dollars a gallon. The promise and the pump are not in the same neighbourhood.
Where do you think the average US pump price sits in the latest week of data?
Actual4
The newest weekly reading for the average US pump price is 4 dollars a gallon. The surprise is not that a promise slipped a little. It is that the pump never got close to the number in the speech, not even in its cheapest week of the past year.
Show answer
4 The newest weekly reading for the average US pump price is 4 dollars a gallon. The surprise is not that a promise slipped a little. It is that the pump never got close to the number in the speech, not even in its cheapest week of the past year.
Data table
| date | value | series | series_role |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-20 | 3.02 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2025-10-27 | 3.04 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2025-11-03 | 3.02 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2025-11-10 | 3.06 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2025-11-17 | 3.06 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2025-11-24 | 3.06 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2025-12-01 | 2.98 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2025-12-08 | 2.94 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2025-12-15 | 2.90 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2025-12-22 | 2.84 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2025-12-29 | 2.81 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-01-05 | 2.80 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-01-12 | 2.78 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-01-19 | 2.81 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-01-26 | 2.85 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-02-02 | 2.87 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-02-09 | 2.90 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-02-16 | 2.92 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-02-23 | 2.94 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-03-02 | 3.02 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-03-09 | 3.50 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-03-16 | 3.72 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-03-23 | 3.96 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-03-30 | 3.99 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-04-06 | 4.12 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-04-13 | 4.12 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-04-20 | 4.04 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-04-27 | 4.12 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-05-04 | 4.45 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-05-11 | 4.50 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-05-18 | 4.49 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-05-25 | 4.47 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-06-01 | 4.30 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-06-08 | 4.15 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-06-15 | 4.05 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-06-22 | 3.91 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-06-29 | 3.83 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-07-06 | 3.78 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-07-13 | 3.85 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-07-20 | 4.00 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-07-27 | 4.10 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-08-03 | 4.08 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-08-10 | 4.01 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-08-17 | 4.05 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-08-24 | 4.08 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-08-31 | 4.07 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-09-07 | 4.16 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-09-14 | 4.32 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-09-21 | 4.48 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-09-28 | 4.46 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-10-05 | 4.35 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-10-12 | 4.33 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
| 2026-10-19 | 4.28 | US Retail Gasoline Price | target |
We only scored the promises that numbers can settle. On that list, 0 came out supported and 2 came out contradicted. Another 6 of the promises sit outside what any of this data can test. Those are claims that market, financial and economic figures simply cannot settle, so we left them unscored. One housekeeping note: the gasoline figures here run through the week ending 19 October 2026, the last week available.
One stock carries the name, and it lagged the market.
Only 1 ticker The short code a stock trades under on an exchange. It is just a name tag for one company's shares. in this check is tied to the speaker's own name: Trump Media & Technology Group. Against the market, its shares came in at -10.9% in the same window as the article. That figure is a cumulative abnormal return A stock's move added up over several days after you strip out the move of the whole market. It shows how a share did relative to its benchmark., the slice of a move that the wider market does not explain.
Data table
| day | series | value | series_role |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | Trump Media & Technology Group | 0.3% | target |
| -2 | Trump Media & Technology Group | 2.7% | target |
| -1 | Trump Media & Technology Group | 3.1% | target |
| 0 | Trump Media & Technology Group | 0.5% | target |
| 1 | Trump Media & Technology Group | -4.3% | target |
| 2 | Trump Media & Technology Group | -1.3% | target |
| 3 | Trump Media & Technology Group | -7.8% | target |
Keep the order of events straight. The article and the share move happened in the same few days, and nothing here tests whether one produced the other. My reading is that one small stock around one news story tells you very little on its own.
Glossary
- ticker
- The short code a stock trades under on an exchange. It is just a name tag for one company's shares.
- cumulative abnormal return
- A stock's move added up over several days after you strip out the move of the whole market. It shows how a share did relative to its benchmark.
The beginner's lesson: direction is easy, size is hard.
Here is the part a headline misses. A promise can point in the right direction and still miss badly on size, and this one missed on both. The pump price is a plain weekly average that anyone can look up, which makes it among the easiest promises in politics to grade.
So two things to keep an eye on. First, the weekly pump average, and the gap between it and the figure that was promised. Second, how a single named stock behaves around political news, instead of reading one week of prices as a verdict on anything.
Quick quiz
What does a cumulative abnormal return actually measure?
Why：It compares one stock with its benchmark over a short window. It says nothing about why the two parted ways.
Show answer
How a share moved after stripping out the market's move It compares one stock with its benchmark over a short window. It says nothing about why the two parted ways.
Risks
- A promise can be right about direction and still be badly wrong about size.
- The official weekly pump average may define the price differently from the speaker.
- Share moves around an article are not proof the article caused them.
Sources
- FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: GASREGW — data as of 2026-10-19; fetched 2026-11-05 19:14 UTC; License note: FRED terms of use; some series are third-party copyrighted
- Trump promised $2 gas and cheaper groceries. Here’s what voters got instead. — data as of 2026-10-23; fetched 2026-11-05 19:09 UTC
- FinMind USStockPrice SPY — data as of 2026-11-03; fetched 2026-11-05 19:09 UTC; License note: FinMind open data; original source TWSE/TPEx or US exchanges
- FinMind USStockPrice DJT — data as of 2026-11-03; fetched 2026-11-05 19:09 UTC; License note: FinMind open data; original source TWSE/TPEx or US exchanges