Trump said there is virtually no inflation, but consumer prices were 3.0% higher in the year to September 2025. Some of his numbers check out; others cannot be graded.
Prices did not fall. They kept rising.
Donald Trump posted on Truth Social about the economy. He said 「EARLY PRICES ARE DOWN, WHILE TARIFFS ARE MAKING OUR COUNTRY AN ECONOMIC POWER AGAIN」. The post also called it 「good news for the holiday season」. Prices are something you can look up, so we did.
Data table
| date | value | series | series_role |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-01 | 314.73 | US Consumer Price | target |
| 2024-10-01 | 315.63 | US Consumer Price | target |
| 2024-11-01 | 316.53 | US Consumer Price | target |
| 2024-12-01 | 317.60 | US Consumer Price | target |
| 2025-01-01 | 318.96 | US Consumer Price | target |
| 2025-02-01 | 319.68 | US Consumer Price | target |
| 2025-03-01 | 319.79 | US Consumer Price | target |
| 2025-04-01 | 320.30 | US Consumer Price | target |
| 2025-05-01 | 320.62 | US Consumer Price | target |
| 2025-06-01 | 321.44 | US Consumer Price | target |
| 2025-07-01 | 322.17 | US Consumer Price | target |
| 2025-08-01 | 323.29 | US Consumer Price | target |
| 2025-09-01 | 324.25 | US Consumer Price | target |
The news report put September consumer price inflation The rate at which the prices you pay go up over time. It is usually quoted against the same month a year earlier. at 2.9% from a year earlier. That was slightly up from 2.7% in August. The official price index A single number that tracks the cost of a typical basket of goods and services. Its level matters less than how fast it moves. runs a touch hotter: consumer prices were 3.0% higher in the year to September 2025. So prices were not down. They were up. The index itself rose in every month from September 2024 to September 2025. These figures run through September 2025, the last month in the data, so nothing here covers October.
Glossary
- inflation
- The rate at which the prices you pay go up over time. It is usually quoted against the same month a year earlier.
- price index
- A single number that tracks the cost of a typical basket of goods and services. Its level matters less than how fast it moves.
A quick word on what we did not grade. Some of what was said in the post sits outside what market or economic data can test, so it was left unchecked. One price claim cannot be checked at all, because the data needed for it is missing. The line about the S&P 500 carries no number, so there is nothing to test. And when a speaker gives a rounded figure, we count it as supported when the real number falls inside the tolerance in our verdict table.
The report card: two numbers pass, several cannot be marked.
Think of it as a report card. 2 of the numbers in the post match what the data shows. 0 are flatly contradicted. 2 were not checked at all. 6 more are claims no dataset can settle.
How high did Bitcoin actually get in this year's data?
Actual124,720
The highest level in our 2025 data is 124,720. The post rounded that up to 125,000. The gap is small, so the claim still scores as supported, which is the surprise: a round number can be right enough.
Show answer
124,720 The highest level in our 2025 data is 124,720. The post rounded that up to 125,000. The gap is small, so the claim still scores as supported, which is the surprise: a round number can be right enough.
The other number that did check out was Bitcoin. The post pointed to a record of 125,000 over the weekend. The highest level in our 2025 data is 124,720. That is close enough to pass. My reading: the post is on firmer ground about asset prices than about shop prices.
Trump Media sat above the market, then gave part of it back.
One stock here is tied straight to the speaker. Trump Media & Technology Group is the only name in this check, 1 ticker The short code a stock trades under, like a nickname on your trading app. in total. Across every day the chart draws, the stock sat above the market, and its lead was biggest on the day of the post itself. Counted from the day of the post, its market-adjusted return The stock's move after you strip out the move of the whole market. It shows whether the stock did better or worse than everything else. was -1.8%, so part of that lead went back. This happened in the same window as the post. It is not proof the post moved the stock, and a handful of days is a small sample.
Glossary
- ticker
- The short code a stock trades under, like a nickname on your trading app.
- market-adjusted return
- The stock's move after you strip out the move of the whole market. It shows whether the stock did better or worse than everything else.
Quick quiz
What does a market-adjusted return tell you?
Why：It takes the market's own move out of the picture. For Trump Media, counted from the day of the post, it was -1.8%.
Show answer
How the stock moved compared with the whole market It takes the market's own move out of the picture. For Trump Media, counted from the day of the post, it was -1.8%.
Data table
| day | series | value | series_role |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | Trump Media & Technology Group | 0.9% | target |
| -2 | Trump Media & Technology Group | 4.3% | target |
| -1 | Trump Media & Technology Group | 5.1% | target |
| 0 | Trump Media & Technology Group | 6.3% | target |
| 1 | Trump Media & Technology Group | 3.3% | target |
| 2 | Trump Media & Technology Group | 4.1% | target |
| 3 | Trump Media & Technology Group | 3.3% | target |
Risks
- A statement can point the right way on direction and still be badly wrong about size.
- Our data defines inflation differently from everyday speech, so the two figures need not match.
- Moves around a post show timing only, never proof that the post caused them.
Sources
- FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: CBBTCUSD — data as of 2025-10-06; fetched 2026-10-24 19:07 UTC; License note: FRED terms of use; some series are third-party copyrighted
- FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: CPIAUCSL — data as of 2025-09-01; fetched 2026-10-24 20:26 UTC; License note: FRED terms of use; some series are third-party copyrighted
- FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: SP500 — data as of 2025-10-06; fetched 2026-10-24 19:07 UTC; License note: FRED terms of use; some series are third-party copyrighted
- Trump Claims “Virtually No Inflation” as Markets Hit Record Highs — data as of 2025-10-06; fetched 2026-10-24 19:07 UTC
- FinMind USStockPrice SPY — data as of 2025-10-17; fetched 2026-10-24 19:07 UTC; License note: FinMind open data; original source TWSE/TPEx or US exchanges
- FinMind USStockPrice DJT — data as of 2025-10-17; fetched 2026-10-24 19:07 UTC; License note: FinMind open data; original source TWSE/TPEx or US exchanges