Microsoft Corporation

How has the stock done?

Change in closing price from the first day shown, or with Price the closing price itself. Prices: Yahoo Finance, to Nov 12, 2026. Dots on the line: a member of Congress whose Hunch portfolio holds MSFT filed a disclosure; its hover says what the disclosure reports of MSFT: each trade, bought or sold, with the amount range the member filed (the House asks for a range, not the amount), or in an annual report the range of the holding’s value, the ranges of its entries added up (“in all”) where the report lists MSFT more than once, in several accounts or share classes: a sum that bounds the value as the ranges do but is not a range the form offers. An annual report’s row has no latest trade. Filings: the Clerk of the House. Dashed lines: the days the company released earnings (its SEC 8-K filings); EPS estimates: Yahoo Finance. The stock's move after a release runs from the last close before its day to the close the day after (or five days after), so a release before the open counts like one after the close.

Is the business growing?

In the fiscal year to Jun 2026, Productivity and Business Processes was 42% and Intelligent Cloud was 42% of revenue; Intelligent Cloud rose from 36% in the fiscal year to Jun 2024.

In the fiscal year to Jun 2026, United States was 51% and Outside the United States was 49% of revenue.

Quarters: Microsoft Corporation's SEC filings, named by the month they end. Fiscal years: Microsoft Corporation's annual reports to the SEC.

How it makes money

Of every $100 in revenue, $40.3 ends up as net income. Net margin rose from 34.1% to 40.3% over the past 3 years.

Circled: Dec 2025 (net 47.3%, operating 47.1%). Net margin is usually about 9 points below operating margin; in that quarter something below operating income (a tax charge or benefit, a gain or loss on investments, a write-down) moved it, not the business itself.

Each margin is that line of the income statement divided by revenue. Fiscal year: Microsoft Corporation's annual reports to the SEC; quarters: SEC filings.

Growth and margins together

Rule of 40 score 36.1 (growth 18.8% + FCF margin 17.3%): middling, short of the 40 line. Stock pay is 3.6% of revenue; counted as a cost, it brings the FCF margin down to 13.7%.

Microsoft trades at 11.4× revenue on 18.8% growth. PLTR grows fastest of its peers, 95.9%, and costs 55.3×.

Growth: revenue in the quarter ended Sep 2026 against the quarter ended Sep 2025. FCF margin: operating cash flow minus capex, over revenue, for the 4 quarters ended Sep 2026. From SEC filings.

Customers and suppliers

In its latest annual report Microsoft sells to OpenAI; it names no suppliers.

Their suppliers

NVIDIA NVDAto CoreWeave, IREN +1

B

Blue Ridge Commerce Center Westto Applied Optoelectronics

C

Colemanto Applied Optoelectronics

H

Hightower Phase I Ownerto Applied Optoelectronics

ASE Technology ASXto AMD

TSMC TSMto AMD

UMC UMCto AMD

PSEG Nuclearto Constellation Energy

S

STPNOCto Constellation Energy

Dell Technologies DELLto IREN

Super Micro Computer SMCIto IREN

Amazon AMZNto Rigetti Computing

Sparqtronto Rigetti Computing

Show 13

Suppliers

CoreWeave CRWV

Applied Optoelectronics AAOI

AMD AMD

Constellation Energy CEG

IREN IREN

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions KTOS

Nebius Group NBIS

Rigetti Computing RGTI

 

MSFTMicrosoft

Customers

Celsius Holdings CELH

Galaxy Digital GLXY

GameStop GME

Innodata INOD

IonQ IONQ

MongoDB MDB

Palantir PLTR

Snowflake SNOW

Strategy (MicroStrategy) MSTR

Zoom Communications ZM

OpenAI

+3 more

Their customers

PepsiCo PEPfrom Celsius Holdings

Forward Industries FWDIfrom Galaxy Digital

U.S. governmentfrom Palantir

Show 3

Partners

OpenAIMicrosoft invested in it · Equity investment and strategic AI partnershipApproximate 25% interest on an as-converted basis

Platforms

CrowdStrike Holdings CRWDsells through Microsoft · Offers Falcon Go through Microsoft MarketplaceIonQ IONQsells through Microsoft · Distributes quantum computing access through Azure QuantumPalo Alto Networks PANWsells through Microsoft · Sells virtual firewalls through cloud marketplaceRoblox RBLXsells through MicrosoftAround 30% of user payments through console, current termsTake-Two Interactive Software TTWOsells through MicrosoftMore than 10.0% of net revenue, fiscal year ended March 31, 2026

Changes since the previous annual report (10-K filed Jul 30, 2025)

Dell Technologies DELLNo longer named (was a customer and a partner)

HPI HPQNo longer named (was a customer and a partner)

LenovoNo longer named (was a customer and a partner)

IInflectionNo longer named (was a partner)

OpenAINow also a customer

Named in other companies’ filings

AMD AMDcalls it a partner · Provides operating system compatibility and driver certificationCognizant Technology Solutions CTSHcalls it a partner · Enterprise platform services and employee trainingEverpure Pcalls it a partner · Application and cloud technology ecosystemFigma FIGcalls it a partner · Workflow integration with Figma

IBM IBMcalls it a partner · Strategic partnership delivering client solutionsMongoDB MDBdistribution deal with it · Joint marketing and technology integrationsNVIDIA NVDAcalls it a partner · Xbox agreement with stock purchase refusal rightsStrategy (MicroStrategy) MSTRdistribution deal with it · Resell, support, or extend Strategy platformWorkday WDAYcalls it a partner · Integrating AI agent registration and managementZoom Communications ZMcalls it a partner · Software integrations with Zoom

Show 6 more

Only the companies Microsoft names in its 10-K filed Jul 29, 2026 (SEC). Named in other companies' filings: those whose own latest annual report or an 8-K since names Microsoft. The supply chain joins the latest annual reports of the companies on it and the 8-Ks they filed since: a link shows when either side's report names the other, so it grows as more reports are read. Platforms: an app store, a console maker or a marketplace one company sells through and pays a share or a fee; not supply, so not on the chain. Hover a name for the filing's own words.

Is it expensive?

EV/revenue of 11.4x, below the peer median of 41.6x.

EV/revenue below the peer median of 41.6x: cheaper than its peers.

Compared on enterprise value (market cap plus debt minus cash) per $1 of revenue: for companies that reinvest what they earn or borrow to grow (software, AI data centers), P/E can mislead.

What analysts expect

The average analyst price target is $636, 22% above the current price; 91% of 58 analysts rate it a buy; earnings beat estimates in all of the last 4 quarters.

Buy or Strong Buy: 53 analysts (91%). Sell or Strong Sell: 0.

Over the past year the average of the analysts' latest price targets went from $633.57 to $631.00 (0%), while MSFT went from $503.29 to $523.00 (+4%). In the past three months targets were raised 36 times and never cut. 1 upgrade and 2 downgrades over the year; the latest: Stifel moved it to Buy from Hold on Sep 23, 2026.

The day after each of these reports the stock moved −9.8% (Dec 2025, beat); −5.0% (Mar 2026, beat); +14.7% (Jun 2026, beat); −0.2% (Sep 2026, beat).

For the quarter ending Dec 2026 (Microsoft reports on Jan 27, 2027), analysts expect adjusted earnings of $4.86 a share, 17% more than the $4.14 of a year earlier, and revenue of $96.7B, up 19% on a year earlier. For the fiscal year ending Jun 2027, they expect adjusted earnings of $20.01 a share, and revenue of $396.0B, up 19% on the year before.

Targets, ratings and earnings estimates: Yahoo Finance. Rating and target changes: Yahoo Finance's list of upgrades and downgrades. The average target on each day is the average of every listed firm's latest target set in the 180 days before it, so it counts fewer analysts than the average target above, and the band is the middle half of those targets (a quarter of the firms are above it, a quarter below); a target set before a stock split is divided by the split. Expected figures: the average of the analysts' estimates (Yahoo Finance). Their EPS is adjusted, as analysts estimate it, so it is set against the adjusted EPS Yahoo reports for the same quarters, not the GAAP EPS of the growth and valuation sections; revenue against the SEC filings. No change is given against a quarter whose reported EPS was more than 50% off its own estimate (often a one-off gain or charge), nor against a year that counts one. Each estimate is pinned to its fiscal period by the report date or the period's end, and one that cannot be is left out.

Where the cash goes

Generated $60.0B in free cash flow over the year, of which $48.1B went back to shareholders (dividends plus buybacks), leaving $11.9B in the company.

Microsoft had 7.45B diluted shares in the quarter ended Sep 2026, 0.3% fewer than a year earlier, and 0.5% fewer each year on average since Mar 2020. It spent $21.0B on buybacks over the last four quarters. Over the last four quarters its earnings per share rose 36.3% and its net income rose 36.0%: fewer shares added about 0 points.

Free cash flow: operating cash flow minus capital spending on property, plant and equipment, from SEC filings, for the last 4 quarters and by quarter. Shares: each quarter's diluted weighted average as filed with the SEC, since the stock's listing and its latest split.

Financial health

Current ratio 1.2, short-term debt is manageable; debt-to-equity 0.1, debt is very low and the balance sheet is solid.

Latest fiscal year balance sheet. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Who holds it

33 portfolios Hunch tracks hold MSFT: 10 members of Congress and 23 funds. It is 32.7% of Pershing Square Capital Management's portfolio (11.9% as filed).

• FundPershing Square Capital ManagementHedge fund founded by Bill AckmanMSFT is 33% of this portfolio12% as filed+90.1%2-year backtest
• FundTorno CapitalAsset managerMSFT is 23% of this portfolio22% as filed+79.7%2-year backtest
• FundWELLCOME TRUST LTD (THE) as trustee of the WELLCOME TRUSTInvestment portfolio of the UK's Wellcome TrustMSFT is 21% of this portfolio9% as filed+51.1%2-year backtest
• FundFundsmithFund firm founded by Terry SmithMSFT is 21% of this portfolio4% as filed+31.7%2-year backtest
• FundJia Investment AllianceSingapore investment firmMSFT is 21% of this portfolio11% as filed+46.8%2-year backtest
• FundVoyager Global ManagementGrowth hedge fundMSFT is 20% of this portfolio17% as filed+62.2%2-year backtest

MSFT's weight in each portfolio is its target weight in the copy Hunch follows: the stocks of the latest filing that the app can trade, their weights scaled up to add to 100%. “As filed” is its weight in the filing itself: a fund’s latest 13F, or a member of Congress’s holdings from the last annual report and the trades disclosed since, each at the low end of its range. Returns are backtests based on public filings, not actual trading results. Photo credits

What did the funds Hunch tracks do?

Of the 83 funds whose 13F filings Hunch reads, 46 held MSFT at the end of their latest quarter (for most, Q2 2026). Over that quarter 17 added shares, 21 cut, 3 bought new, 3 sold all and 5 held the same. The largest of them is Norges Bank, 102.73M shares worth $38.3B at Jun 30, 2026, 1.9% fewer than at Dec 31, 2025.

From the 13F filings of the 83 funds Hunch tracks, not of every institution: each fund's shares of MSFT at its latest quarter end against the quarter before, as filed (long positions only, options left out), the quarter before put on the latest quarter's share count across a split. A fund files 45 days after its quarter ends, so some have a newer quarter than others. Value is at the quarter end. Norges Bank filed its 13F for Q1 2026 confidentially, with no holdings made public, so its row compares Q2 2026 with Q4 2025.

Are insiders buying or selling?

Officers and directors bought $2.0M and sold $98.6M of MSFT on the open market in the 12 months to Nov 10, 2026. 69% of the sales were made under 10b5-1 plans, set up in advance. The largest was Satya Nadella (Chief Executive Officer; director), who sold $43.4M in 8 sales.

From the Form 4s filed with the SEC about Microsoft Corporation (139 in the 12 months): purchases (code P) and sales (code S) on the open market by its officers and directors, at the price each filing gives (often an average of the day's trades). A sale is a 10b5-1 sale when its filing says it was made under such a plan, set up in advance. Not counted: 63 other transactions (grants, shares withheld for tax and gifts).

Insights that mention MSFT