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Kimberly-Clark early Q3 shock: a 4.5% day-one gap!

TL;DR

On the filing day, the part of Kimberly-Clark's move that the peer basket did not share was 4.5%. The company kept its 2026 outlook unchanged. In the published accounts, which reach 2026Q2, growth is thin and running costs are heavier.

Kimberly-Clark told us early, and the stock moved with it

Kimberly-Clark pre-announced. On 15 October 2026 it filed early, unaudited numbers for the quarter ended September 2026 and said the full-year plan had not moved. The company said its 「outlook for 2026 remains consistent with previous expectations」. Final figures are due on 5 November 2026.

Kimberly-Clark and its peer basket
Kimberly-Clark starts this window below the peer basket and ends above it on day 5.
Data table
dayseriesvalueseries_role
-10Kimberly-Clark-3.2%target
-9Kimberly-Clark-3.2%target
-8Kimberly-Clark-2.1%target
-7Kimberly-Clark-0.7%target
-6Kimberly-Clark-1.0%target
-5Kimberly-Clark0.3%target
-4Kimberly-Clark0.2%target
-3Kimberly-Clark1.4%target
-2Kimberly-Clark0.9%target
-1Kimberly-Clark2.0%target
0Kimberly-Clark6.8%target
1Kimberly-Clark8.4%target
2Kimberly-Clark8.2%target
3Kimberly-Clark11.2%target
4Kimberly-Clark9.5%target
5Kimberly-Clark15.3%target
-10Peer basket-0.7%peer
-9Peer basket-0.5%peer
-8Peer basket1.0%peer
-7Peer basket2.3%peer
-6Peer basket2.2%peer
-5Peer basket3.5%peer
-4Peer basket3.9%peer
-3Peer basket5.6%peer
-2Peer basket5.7%peer
-1Peer basket8.5%peer
0Peer basket8.7%peer
1Peer basket10.3%peer
2Peer basket9.5%peer
3Peer basket11.2%peer
4Peer basket9.8%peer
5Peer basket14.8%peer
-10Cumulative abnormal return-2.5%neutral
-9Cumulative abnormal return-2.7%neutral
-8Cumulative abnormal return-3.0%neutral
-7Cumulative abnormal return-2.9%neutral
-6Cumulative abnormal return-3.1%neutral
-5Cumulative abnormal return-3.1%neutral
-4Cumulative abnormal return-3.6%neutral
-3Cumulative abnormal return-4.1%neutral
-2Cumulative abnormal return-4.6%neutral
-1Cumulative abnormal return-6.1%neutral
0Cumulative abnormal return-1.6%neutral
1Cumulative abnormal return-1.7%neutral
2Cumulative abnormal return-1.1%neutral
3Cumulative abnormal return0.1%neutral
4Cumulative abnormal return-0.2%neutral
5Cumulative abnormal return0.6%neutral

Now the market side. On the filing day, the part of Kimberly-Clark's move that the did not share was 4.5%. In plain terms that is the : the slice of a move a peer group did not share. The peer basket here is 3 stocks: Procter & Gamble, Colgate-Palmolive and Church & Dwight. Over the ten trading days before, that same measure added up to -6.1%. From the filing day onward it was 6.7%. The window after the filing covers 6 trading days including the day itself. Treat this as two things happening in the same window, not as one causing the other.

Glossary
abnormal return
The part of a stock's move that similar companies did not share on the same days. It is a way to strip out the mood of the whole sector.
peer basket
A small group of lookalike companies used as a yardstick. A stock that rises exactly as much as the basket has done nothing special.

Sales are crawling, and the cost line did the damage

The published accounts do not yet cover the September quarter, so the figures here run through 2026Q2, the last period available. Growth against the same quarter a year earlier was 0.6%, down from 2.7% in 2026Q1. The sales bars themselves have barely moved over the past year. Stretch the window and the three-year rate to 2026Q2 is -6.6% a year.

Quarterly revenue and growth, through 2026Q2
Over the latest year the bars barely move, and the growth line, after wild 2024 swings, sits just above zero at the right-hand end.
Data table
periodrevenueyoy
2023Q3$5.1bn1.6%
2023Q4$1.7bn-3.2%
2024Q1$4.3bn-16.7%
2024Q2$4.2bn-17.6%
2024Q3$4.1bn-19.3%
2024Q4$4.1bn143.6%
2025Q1$4.1bn-6.3%
2025Q2$4.2bn-1.6%
2025Q3$4.2bn0.1%
2025Q4$4.1bn-0.6%
2026Q1$4.2bn2.7%
2026Q2$4.2bn0.6%

The cost side is the interesting bit. Gross margin was 38.3% in 2026Q2, 1.4 pp better than the quarter before. Operating margin still fell -3.0 pp between those two quarters, while running costs took 4.4 pp more of each sales dollar. My reading: the squeeze sits in the costs below the gross line, not in what shoppers pay at the shelf. But look a year back and the picture flips: is 3.3 pp wider and 0.9 pp wider than in the same quarter of 2025. So the cost story is a one-quarter step down, not a year-long slide.

Glossary
gross margin
What is left of each sales dollar after the cost of making the product. Higher means the product itself earns more.
operating margin
What is left after both making the product and running the business, such as marketing, logistics and offices.

The cheapest price tag in the group, and the thinnest growth

Kimberly-Clark's is 18.7x. The median for the 3 peers with a P/E is 33.6x. Against that median the gap is -44.3%.

Glossary
trailing P/E
The share price divided by the profit per share of the last four quarters. A lower number means you pay less for each dollar of past profit.
total return
The change in a share's value over a stretch of time, with dividends counted as reinvested into the stock.

Where do you think Kimberly-Clark's trailing P/E sits today?

Show answer

18.7x It is 18.7x. The surprise is the distance from the 33.6x peer median, for a company that had just told the market nothing in its plan had changed.

A year of share price tells a matching story. Total return over the year to 2026-10-23 was -2.5%. The market returned 14.4% over the same year. My reading: the low multiple travels with the thinnest growth among these names, so the discount is less of a bargain hunt than it looks.

Risks

  • These are preliminary figures and exclude items not yet identified; final numbers arrive 5 November 2026.
  • The peer basket holds only a handful of large consumer names, a thin yardstick for the event study.
  • Currency moves and reporting changes make year-on-year comparisons across these quarters hard to read.

Sources

  1. FinMind USStockPrice CHD — data as of 2026-10-23; fetched 2026-10-25 16:31 UTC; License note: FinMind open data; original source TWSE/TPEx or US exchanges
  2. FinMind USStockPrice CL — data as of 2026-10-23; fetched 2026-10-25 16:31 UTC; License note: FinMind open data; original source TWSE/TPEx or US exchanges
  3. FinMind USStockPrice KMB — data as of 2026-10-23; fetched 2026-10-25 16:31 UTC; License note: FinMind open data; original source TWSE/TPEx or US exchanges
  4. FinMind USStockPrice PG — data as of 2026-10-23; fetched 2026-10-25 16:31 UTC; License note: FinMind open data; original source TWSE/TPEx or US exchanges
  5. SEC EDGAR XBRL companyfacts, KIMBERLY-CLARK CORPORATION — data as of 2026-06-30; fetched 2026-10-25 16:31 UTC